[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT45 KNHC 130848
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED JUL 13 2005

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS STILL IN THE ORGANIZING STAGE...AND NOT VERY
SYMMETRICAL.  MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS OVER THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION.  LOW CLOUD LINES EVIDENT IN
IR COMBINATION CHANNEL IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER IS NEAR THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION.  IN SPITE OF THE
STORM'S ASYMMETRICAL APPEARENCE...VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS WEAK OVER
THE AREA.  PERHAPS THE EROSION OF CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT IS DUE TO AN INTRUSION OF DRIER AIR.  CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE REMAINS AT 50 KT...AND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE SHOULD
GIVE US MORE PRECISE INFORMATION ON THE STRENGTH OF EMILY.
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS IMPRESSIVE AND THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODEL
PREDICT SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING OF EMILY AS IT MOVES OVER
INCREASINGLY WARM CARIBBEAN WATERS.  MY WIND SPEED FORECAST IS
QUITE CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE... AND TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST.  EMILY COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN...BUT IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS LIMITED SKILL IN
PREDICTING TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY CHANGE IN 3-5 DAYS.

EMILY HAS BEEN MOVING MOSTLY WESTWARD...AROUND 270/17.  DYNAMICAL
TRACK PREDICTION MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS A LARGE
AREA OF MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH PRESSURE IS LIKELY TO REMAIN TO THE
NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE SUITE...AND ALSO SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST.

FORECASTER PASCH


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      13/0900Z 11.1N  56.3W    50 KT
 12HR VT     13/1800Z 11.6N  58.6W    60 KT
 24HR VT     14/0600Z 12.4N  61.7W    65 KT
 36HR VT     14/1800Z 13.3N  64.8W    75 KT
 48HR VT     15/0600Z 14.3N  67.9W    85 KT
 72HR VT     16/0600Z 16.0N  74.0W   100 KT
 96HR VT     17/0600Z 18.0N  80.5W   100 KT
120HR VT     18/0600Z 19.5N  86.5W   100 KT

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