[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120013
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE IS NEAR 10.6N 46.0W AT
11/2100 UTC MOVING WEST 12 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE WAS 1008 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED WAS 30 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. T.D.
FIVE CONTINUES TO BE POORLY ORGANIZED. OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT AND SLOW STEADY STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED.
SCATTERED MODERATED/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 250 NM
OF THE CENTER.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC NEAR THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS ALONG 23W S OF 15 N CONTINUES TO MOVE W NEAR 15 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 6N-14N BETWEEN 18W-26W.

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING
WEST 10 TO 15 KT.  CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL
DEFINED WAVE.  SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
EXTENDS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 30W-37W.

WESTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 75W/76W SOUTH OF 18N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE  MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH STARTS OUT IN THE ATLANTIC AND
WHOSE BASE REACHES THE WEST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. NUMEROUS
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 7N-15N BETWEEN 79W-84W ARE
ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE TROUGH BASE. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 70W-74W.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ  AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N16W 9N24W 9N43W 10N60W. WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 18W-30W...FROM 5N-9N
BETWEEN 30W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH LOCATED OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA WITH A
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED  IN THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 17N-21 N BETWEEN 90W-91W. ELSEWHERE...MID
TO UPPER LEVEL MODERATE SUBSIDENCE  DOMINATES W OF 85W...NOT
ALLOWING FOR ANY DEEP LAYER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.  BROAD UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF
WATERS...EXTENDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM
20N TO 32N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
S OF JAMAICA NEAR 15N76W.   MID/ UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC EXTENDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN INTO THE GULF
HONDURAS W OF 86W. MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 68W... ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER
THE E CARIBBEAN.  THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
ALONG WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IS ENHANCING THE GENERATION OF
CONVECTION OVER CUBA AND JAMAICA AS WELL AS NUMEROUS MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 7N-15N BETWEEN 81W-87W ALONG
HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA AND PANAMA.  SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS OVER LAKE MARACAIBO IN VENEZUELA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER FLORIDA NEAR 29N83W  WITH A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING S INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA AND E INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO NEAR 29N64W.  UPPER ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC W OF 66W.   BROAD MID/ UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 30N40W TO NEAR 18N48W. NO CONVECTION IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED NEAR 17N59W WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ADVECTING TROPICAL
MOISTURE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN BUT GIVING THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE N OF 9N FROM 51W-66W.  THIS DRY
AIR REMAINS TO THE W OF T.D. FIVE AND WILL LIMIT MOISTURE FOR
THE SYSTEM. BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLANTIC W
OF T.D. FIVE WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING E TO W OFF OF AFRICA.
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR COVERS THE AREA E OF A
LINE FROM 20N31W OF THE CANARY ISLAND TO 31N10W. AT THE SURFACE
A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE ATLANTIC NORTH OF 16N E OF 50W.

$$
JP/HC



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