[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111810
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
WAS NEAR 10.3N 44.7W...MOVING WEST 10 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1008 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
WAS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. T.D. FIVE IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED. A LOW LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE 11/0900 UTC QUIK-SCAT DATA SHOWED
THAT THE SAME LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION MAY BE JUST A SWIRL IN
THE BROADER SURFACE LOW. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS BROADER
LOW PRESSURE CENTER MAY BE WHAT CONTINUES INTO THE FUTURE.
AN AREA OF SOLID NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXISTS FROM 10N TO 11.5N BETWEEN 44W AND 46W. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE AROUND THE EDGE OF
THE CIRCULATION AROUND THIS DEPRESSION...WITHIN 200 NM TO
THE NORTH THROUGH NORTHWEST...AND WITHIN 200 TO 270 NM
TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH WEST OF THE CENTER.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE SHOWS UP CLEARLY ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY...ALONG 22W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST 10 TO
15 KT.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING WEST 10 TO
15 KT. THIS WAVE WAS NOT LISTED IN THE 15/1200 UTC TROPICAL
WEATHER DISCUSSION. IT IS APPARENT IN DOING A POST-ANALYSIS
OF THE HOVMOLLER DIAGRAMS AND THE AFRICAN RAWINSONDE DATA...
AND IN CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY.  SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SEEN FROM 6N TO 9N
BETWEEN 32W AND 35W.

CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 74W/75W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING
WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF A
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH STARTS OUT IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN AND WHOSE BASE REACHES THE WEST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N TO 13N
BETWEEN 79W AND 84W ARE ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE TROUGH BASE.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 13N TO 19N BETWEEN 75W AND 85W
ARE IN THE MIDDLE OF AND TO THE NORTH OF THE TROUGH. SOME OF
THE STRONG SHOWERS ARE REACHING THE COASTAL PLAINS OF NICARAGUA
AND HONDURAS.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ 13N16W 10N20W...9N24W 9N31W...9N34W 10N40W...9N47W
10N56W...11N64W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME AREAS
OF SHOWERS FORMING ON ONE HAND AND DISSIPATING ON ANOTHER
HAND...WITHIN 40 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 12N20W 10N20W 8N24W
7N27W 7N30W...AND FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 19W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE SURFACE ISOBARIC PATTERN IN THE GULF WATERS IS A BIT
STRANGE NOW THAT THE FORMER HURRICANE DENNIS HAS LEFT THE
AREA. THE ONLY NOTEWORTHY GRADIENT IS IN THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF COAST AREA AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION DENNIS HEADS NORTHWARD
LEAVING BEHIND A BIT OF GRADIENT TO THE SOUTH. A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH NOW RUNS FROM JUST WEST OF THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO TOWARD THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL DRY AIR IS WEST OF 30N83W 21N90W...NOT ALLOWING FOR ANY
DEEP LAYER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN DEVELOPING IN A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER AND THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST TO THE NORTH CENTRAL AREA
TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ALSO ARE
PRESENT IN BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS FROM 24N TO 29N
BETWEEN 82W AND 88W...IN AN AREA OF SURFACE SOUTHERLY WINDS.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE
GULF WATERS...BLOWING INTO THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS
FROM 20N TO 32N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
NEAR 25N64W THROUGH 20N70W NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO A
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 15N79W TO CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR
THE BORDERS OF NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...AND EL SALVADOR. NUMEROUS
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 79W AND
84W ARE ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE TROUGH BASE. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS FROM 13N TO 19N BETWEEN 75W AND 85W ARE IN THE MIDDLE OF
AND TO THE NORTH OF THE TROUGH. SOME OF THE STRONG SHOWERS ARE
REACHING THE COASTAL PLAINS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. SHOWERS
WHICH HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI BETWEEN 69W
AND 72W...WITH THE TROUGH. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE AND/OR HAVE BEEN OCCURRING FROM 15N TO 19N
BETWEEN 65W AND 68W IN SURFACE TRADEWINDS AND UNDER AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE. THIS PRECIPITATION IS SOUTH AND NORTH AND ON TOP OF
PUERTO RICO.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND TROUGH...ORIGINATING
WELL NORTH OF THE AREA AND EAST OF THE U.S.A. EAST COAST...IS
SENDING NORTHERLY FLOW SOUTHWARD TO THE AREA NEAR 30N70W. SOME
OF THIS NORTHERLY FLOW IS MIXING WITH THE GULF OF MEXICO-TO-
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. SOME OF THIS FLOW IS
SHOOTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...GIVEN ITS POSITION RELATIVE TO
THE BASE OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH FROM THE NORTH...NEAR 30N69W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING FROM 22N TO 28N
BETWEEN 61W AND 76W...TO THE SOUTH OF THE ON-RUSHING DEEP LAYER
FEATURE. A SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT IS ALONG 34N/35N BETWEEN
64W AND 72W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION ARE NORTH OF 30N76W 26N69W 32N59W. A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 30N43W. HIGH
CLOUDS ARE SWIRLING ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM 28N TO
32N BETWEEN 38W AND 45W.

$$
MT




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