[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 111057
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM DENNIS WAS DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT
11/0900 UTC. DENNIS IS INLAND CENTERED OVER ALABAMA NEAR 33.3N
88.3W MOVING NNW AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
983 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40
KT. THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER. SEE THE STORM SUMMARY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KWNH FOR MORE DETAILS. NARROW LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM 27N88W ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
NEAR 30N85W TO NE GEORGIA NEAR 34N85W. DENNIS CONTINUES TO SLOW
DOWN AND WEAKENING. THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE OVER TENNESSEE AND N MISSISSIPPI.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE IS CENTERED NEAR 10.8N 43.6N  AT 0900
UTC MOVING W AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1010 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40
KT. SEE THE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. T.D. FIVE HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE
9N42W-14N46W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM 16N20W TO 4N24W IS ALONG 23W/24W
MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS IS A BROAD WAVE WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL
CURVATURE OBSERVED NEAR THE SURFACE REFLECTION. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE
FROM 14N20W TO THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 13.5N23.5W.

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 73W/74W S OF 18N MOVING
W 10 KT. WAVE IS TO THE E OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH IS
MASKING THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE CURVATURE. POSITION IS BASED ON
EXTRAPOLATION. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N15W 8N27W 11N41W...8N47W 11N62W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM
OF THE AXIS FROM 26W-34W...WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS FROM
20W-24W...AND WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM
8N-11N. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 5N W OF 44W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK MID/UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE W GULF FROM OVER TEXAS N
OF 21N W OF 92W. MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH OFF THE NE COAST OF
FLORIDA IN THE W ATLC IS GIVING THE E GULF S TO SE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW. ALL THIS COMBINED IS LEAVING THE GULF UNDER DRY UPPER AIR
AND MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE...THUS CLEARING SKIES WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO T.D. DENNIS. DEEP LAYERED
RIDGE FROM THE W ATLC WILL BUILD W ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO BRING CLEAR SKIES
WITH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS A POSSIBILITY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF JAMAICA
NEAR 15N77W DRIFTING WESTWARD. UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE
AREA FROM 70W-83W. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE W ATLC EXTENDS
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS W OF 83W. THIS IS
LEAVING THE NW CARIBBEAN RELATIVELY CLOUD AND SHOWER FREE. A
SECOND MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W AND
IS ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS AIDING THE GENERATION OF
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION THAT ARE S OF 12N E OF
80W TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA AND ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER LAKE MARACAIBO. ISOLATED SHOWERS DOT
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN S OF 20N FROM 70W-86W. THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC WILL EXPAND AND COVER MOST OF THE
CARIBBEAN BEFORE MID WEEK AND T.D. FIVE IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN AND MOVE INTO THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OFF THE NE COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 31N79W
WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING S INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA
NEAR 23N82W. UPPER ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA W OF 70W.
THIS UPPER HIGH WILL EXPAND BY MIDWEEK COVERING THE N
CARIBBEAN...GULF OF MEXICO...AND ALL OF THE W ATLC. WEAK
MID/UPPER LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL/WESTERN ATLC NEAR 25N65W WITH A
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 28N62W THROUGH THE LOW TO HISPANIOLA
NEAR 19N69W. THIS LOW IS GRADUALLY NARROWING AND IS A BENIGN
FEATURE...NOT GENERATING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. BROAD MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 23N FROM 36W-50W...ALSO
BENIGN AND NOT PRODUCING ANY ACTIVE WEATHER. OVER THE W TROPICAL
ATLC...A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 16N58W
WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN BUT GIVING THE TROPICAL ATLC DRY AIR AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE N OF 8N FROM 48W-62W. THIS DRY AIR IS TO THE W OF
T.D. FIVE AND WILL LIMIT MOISTURE FOR THE SYSTEM...THUS SLOW
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE
E ATLC W OF THE ABOVE FEATURES WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING E TO W
OFF AFRICA. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR COVERS THE
AREA E OF A LINE FROM 20N30W W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS TO BEYOND
32N17W. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE ATLC N
OF 20N E OF 80W.

$$
WALLACE





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