[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT44 KNHC 110257
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN JUL 10 2005

SATELLITE IMAGERY...DIPPLER RADARDATA...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE DENNIS IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING OVER SOUTHWESTERN
ALABAMA. NO TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE
GULF DURING THE PAST 2 HOURS...SO ALL COASTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE
WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. DENNIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND...AND THE CYCLONE COULD BECOME A
DEPRESSION AS EARLY AS THE NEXT ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/14. DENNIS HAS SLOWED ITS FORWARD
MOTION AND HAS TURNED BACK TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AS INDICATED
IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED ON A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
AND WESTERN TENNESSEE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS..FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AFTERWARDS AS DENNIS COMES UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A SLOW MOVING MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS
FORECAST TO STALL OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IN 72 THROUGH 120
HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...
AND THIS FORECAST TRACK COULD RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAINFALL ALONG THE TRACK OF DENNIS...AND ITS REMNANTS.

ALTHOUGH SURFACE WINDS HAVE DECREASED CONSIDERABLY SINCE DENNIS
MOVED INLAND EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...THE WINDS ALOFT HAVE NOT
DECREASED MUCH AT ALL BASED ON 00Z UPPER-AIR DATA. UNFORTUNATELY...
THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE PRODUCTION OF
TORNADOES ON MONDAY TO THE EAST OF DENNIS' TRACK DURING THE DAY
ONCE THE SURFACE HEATING DESTABILIZES THE ATMOPSHERE ENOUGH TO
TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      11/0300Z 32.3N  87.8W    45 KT
 12HR VT     11/1200Z 34.3N  88.7W    30 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
 24HR VT     12/0000Z 36.4N  89.4W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND
 36HR VT     12/1200Z 37.7N  89.4W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND
 48HR VT     13/0000Z 38.4N  89.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND
 72HR VT     14/0000Z 38.9N  87.9W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND
 96HR VT     15/0000Z 38.9N  87.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND
120HR VT     16/0000Z 38.9N  87.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND


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