[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS84 KMOB 110031 CCA
HLSMOB
ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-110231-

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED POSITION TIME...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
731 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2005

...DENNIS WEAKENING OVER SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA...

...TORNADOES AND FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN LIKELY AROUND DENNIS'
EYEWALL THROUGH 830 PM CDT PM CDT...

...A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ALABAMA AND
NORTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COASTS...

...AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS
OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...

...AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS
OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA
AND FOR PORTIONS OF INLAND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST
ALABAMA AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
AT 7 PM CDT...GEORGE AND GREENE COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
WERE DOWNGRADED TO AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING.  ALSO...THE
INLAND PORTIONS OF THE ALABAMA AND FLORIDA COASTAL COUNTIES HAVE BEEN
DOWNGRADED TO AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING.  FINALLY...CONECUH
AND ESCAMBIA COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA HAVE BEEN DOWNGRADED TO AN
INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING.  OTHERWISE...ALL OTHER TROPICAL
WARNINGS REMAIN UNCHANGED.  FOR THE LATEST BREAKDOWN ON TROPICAL
WARNING PRODUCTS PLEASE SEE THE BHMNPWMOB PRODUCT.  A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.  FOR THE
LATEST PLEASE SEE SEE THE PRODUCT BHMFFAMOB.

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR CHOCTAW...CLARKE...MONROE...
WASHINGTON AND WILCOX COUNTIES UNTIL 11 PM CDT.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 715 PM CDT...THE POORLY DEFINED CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR 31.4 NORTH LATITUDE AND 87.5 WEST LONGITUDE...OR 15
MILES SOUTHWEST OF MONROEVILLE ALABAMA.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
NEAR 80 MPH...WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 90 MPH.  DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM LATER THIS EVENING.  HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES FROM THE CENTER.  THE MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 961
MB...OR...28.38 INCHES.  DENNIS HAS SLOWED AND IS NOW MOVING TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
AT THIS TIME...THE STORM HAS MADE LANDFALL.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE IS STILL FALLING BETWEEN MOBILE AND
DESTIN.  SURFACE WINDS ALONG THE COAST CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE
WESTERLY THIS EVENING.  THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL FALL OF STORM
SURGE...ESPECIALLY OVER ESCAMBIA BAY...INCLUDING EAST BAY.  AREA TIDE
GAUGES AT 6 PM CDT SHOW 3.8 FEET AT DESTIN EAST PASS...3.5 FEET AT
PERDIDO PASS...4.1 FEET AT SANTA ROSA SOUND...0.2 FEET AT MOBILE
STATE DOCKS AND 1.3 FEET AT DAUPHIN ISLAND.

...WIND IMPACTS...
THROUGH 9 PM CDT...HURRICANE DENNIS WILL CONTINUE MOVING TO THE
NORTHWEST OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MONROE...CLARKE AND POSSIBLY
SOUTHERN WILCOX COUNTY. WIND ARE GENERALLY 60 TO 80 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS.  WINDS WILL BE HIGHEST AROUND THE CENTER OF DENNIS...
WHICH HAS CONSIDERABLY WEAKENED SINCE 6 PM CDT.

...RIP CURRENTS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS...
STAY OUT OF THE WATER.  HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL PRECLUDE
RECREATIONAL BEACH ACTIVITY THROUGH MONDAY.  DO NOT GO BACK INTO THE
WATER TONIGHT OR ON MONDAY!  RESIDUAL RIP CURRENTS WILL REMAIN.

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF BETWEEN 5 AND 7 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 10 INCHES.  THROUGH 9 PM CDT...
HOURLY RAINFALL RATES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 2.5 AND 3.5 INCHES PER HOUR
IN THE MOST INTENSE CONVECTION SURROUNDING DENNIS.  SINCE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...A GENERAL 3.5 TO 4.5 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER A
LARGE PORTION OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA
PANHANDLE.  THUS...GROUND CONDITIONS ARE SATURATED AND RAINFALL
RUNOFF WILL BE RAPID...ESPECIALLY AND INITIALLY NEAR RURAL CREEKS AND
STREAMS AND OVER URBAN CONCRETE SURFACES. IF FLOODING IS ENCOUNTERED
WHILE DRIVING...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND AND DON'T DROWN.

LATEST RAINFALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT RIVER FLOODING COULD
POTENTIALLY BE WORSE THAN IVAN OF 2004...BUT NOT AS SEVERE AS
HURRICANE GEORGES OF 1998.  AREA RIVERS WILL GO INTO FLOOD SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING MIDWEEK.  THE RIVER FLOODING IS HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK OF DENNIS.  THE AREA OF GREATEST INLAND
FLOOD CONCERN INCLUDES THE CONECUH RIVER...MURDER CREEK AND BIG
ESCAMBIA CREEK IN SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE SHOAL...YELLOW AND
BLACKWATER RIVERS IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

...TORNADO THREAT...THE TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
CONCENTRATED AROUND AND TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REMNANT CIRCULATION
CENTER AS DENNIS MOVES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA.  THE
TORNADO THREAT HAS DECREASED SOMEWHAT AROUND THE EYE SINCE THE
CIRCULATION INTENSITY HAS DIMINISHED.

...NEWEST INFORMATION...
THROUGH 9 PM CDT...HURRICANE DENNIS WILL CONTINUE MOVING TO THE
NORTHWEST OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MONROE...CLARKE AND POSSIBLY
SOUTHERN WILCOX COUNTY. WIND ARE GENERALLY 60 TO 80 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. MODERATE TO WIDESPREAD TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY ALONG THE
STORM TRACK.

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENTS WILL BE PREPARED EVERY ONE TO TWO HOURS
AND WILL REFLECT THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS OF THE SHORT-TERM MOVEMENT
OF DENNIS. THIS PRODUCT WILL BE SHORTENED TO REFLECT AND FOCUS ON THE
MOST IMPORTANT INFORMATION AS DENNIS EVOLVES.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT SCHEDULED HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
9 PM CDT.

$$

MEDLIN

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