[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110002
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN JUL 10 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS IS LOCATED
INLAND NEAR LATITUDE 30.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 87.2 WEST OR ABOUT
20 MILES NORTH OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA.  DENNIS IS MOVING NNW 18 KT
AND THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950 MB. THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. SEE
THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC AND THE FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.  VISIBLE
SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATES DENNIS HAS A DISTINCT CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST CLOUD AREA WITH THE EYE FADING AWAY.  NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 30N-32N BETWEEN 85W-88W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM 29N-35N BETWEEN 82W-89W.

CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15
KT WITH A 1012 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 10N.  BANDS OF TSTMS
AROUND THE LOW ARE MORE DISTINCT AND STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY
WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS VERY LOW AND THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING
OVER PROGRESSIVELY WARM WATER TEMPERATURES.  COMPUTER MODELS
SUGGEST THE LOW WILL MOVE W TO WNW AT ABOUT 10 KT AND REGARDLESS
OF DEVELOPMENT... BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE LESSER
ANTILLES BY LATE WED.  PRESENTLY WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 40W-46W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 42W IS NOW A SPECIAL FEATURE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W/71W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15
KT.  THE CURACAO SOUNDING THIS MORNING INDICATES THAT THE WAVE
HAD PASSED WITH SE WINDS IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS MOSTLY INLAND OVER NW VENEZUELA
AND N COLOMBIA FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 70W-76W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 14N16W 8N25W 10N42W 7N50W 9N60W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 12W-18W.  SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 23W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
DENNIS IS THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.
SURFACE CYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.
WINDS ARE STILL 30 KT OR GREATER N OF 28N AND E OF 90W.
CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND POINTS N.
FAIR SKIES ARE OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W.   IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS CENTERED
NEAR 27N94W.  THE ATMOSPHERE IS TOO STABLE AND DRY TO SUPPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION W OF 90W.  MID/UPPER RIDGING IS FROM
CUBA TO CENTRAL FLORIDA... IMPARTING A SLY SHEAR ON DENNIS AND
CAUSING A HUGE EXPANSION OF THE OUTFLOW ON THE N SIDE OF THE
CYCLONE.  N FLORIDA IS LIKELY TO STAY RELATIVELY WET AND CLOUDY
UNTIL TOMORROW.  VERY DRY CONDITIONS REMAINS FOR TEXAS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BESIDES THE ONE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN LIGHT TO MODERATE
TRADE WINDS DOMINATES THE SEA.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER HAITI FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN
72W-74W...AND OVER S CUBA FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 77W-80W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM NICARAGUA TO S MEXICO BETWEEN
84W-93W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...  A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS S OF
HISPANIOLA NEAR 17N73W MOVING W 10-15 KT AND IS RESPONSIBLE FOR
ENHANCING A TROPICAL WAVE'S CONVECTION OVER N COLOMBIA.  FARTHER
SE...AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
NEAR 13N60W.   DRIER AIR IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS IS E OF 60W.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THE LEEWARD/WINDWARD ISLANDS FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS UNTIL THE WAVE/LOW AROUND 42W APPROACHES THE
AREA ON WED.  THE LATEST GFS SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW WILL BE A
THREAT TO THE AREA IF IT DEVELOPS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 34N74W.  ANOTHER 1024
MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 33N38W THAT DOMINATES
THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND E OF 60W.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...NARROW RIDGING EXTENDS FROM NE TO NEAR BERMUDA
EASTWARD TO 32N50W IN THE CENTRAL ATLC.  BENEATH THE RIDGE THERE
IS A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 24N63W DRIFTING W ALONG WITH VERY
DRY AIR IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS N OF 20N W OF 50W.  FARTHER E...
MID/UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 20N43W TO 31N33W WITH LITTLE
SENSIBLE WEATHER DUE TO VERY DRY AIR ALOFT.  A WEAK MID/UPPER
TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS...OTHERWISE THE E
ATLC IS DOMINATED BY UPPER RIDGING EXTENDS FROM W MAURITANIA
THRU THE NW CAPE VERDES TO 15N43W WITH A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH S
OF 20N ALONG 48W.  VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS MUCH LOWER THAN
AVERAGE IN THE DEEP TROPICS... ALONG WITH WEAKER TRADES THAN
NORMAL.

$$
FORMOSA


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net