[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS84 KMOB 101955
HLSMOB
ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-102216-

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
254 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2005

...HURRICANE DENNIS MADE LANDFALL BETWEEN GULF BREEZE AND NAVARRE
FLORIDA...CLOSEST TO ORIOLE BEACH FLORIDA...

..EXTREME WIND DAMAGE...FLOODING AND ISOLATED TORNADOES A CERTAINTY
AFTER LANDFALL...

...A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ALABAMA AND
NORTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COASTS...

...AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS
OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...

...AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS
OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA
AND FOR PORTIONS OF INLAND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST
ALABAMA AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS HAVE CHANGED SINCE OUR LAST HURRICANE LOCAL
STATEMENT.  FOR THE LATEST BREAKDOWN ON TROPICAL WARNING PRODUCTS
PLEASE SEE THE BHMNPWMOB PRODUCT.  A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.  FOR THE LATEST PLEASE
SEE SEE THE PRODUCT BHMFFAMOB.

A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND
NORTHWEST FLORIDA UNTIL 1100 PM THIS EVENING.  BALDWIN...MOBILE AND
WASHINGTON COUNTIES OF ALABAMA AND INLAND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI ARE
NOT IN THE TORNADO WATCH.


...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 245 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED
AT 30.4 NORTH LATITUDE...87.1 WEST LONGITUDE...OR NEAR ORIOLE BEACH
FLORIDA. DENNIS WAS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH.
THE LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WSR-88D RADAR OBSERVATIONS
FROM BOTH EGLIN AIR FORCE BASE AND MOBILE ALABAMA SHOW 125 TO 135 MPH
WINDS BETWEEN 5000 AND 7000 FEET OFF OF THE GROUND...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS NEAR AND EAST OF THE CENTER OF DENNIS OVER THE LANDFALL
LOCATION.  A PORTABLE WEATHER OBSERVATION STATION NEAR NAVARRE
MEASURED A 121 MPH WIND GUST AT 211 PM CDT. EARLY INDICATIONS ARE
THAT DENNIS IS LIKELY A CATEGORY THREE STORM...AND POSSIBLY A
CATEGORY 4 STORM. WE WILL KNOW MORE AS MORE OBSERVATIONS BECOME
AVAILABLE.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
AT THIS TIME...ALL PRECAUTIONARY AND PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS SHOULD HAVE
BEEN COMPLETED.  IF YOU DID NOT EVACUATE...SEEK SHELTER IN THE
STURDIEST INTERIOR STRUCTURE YOU CAN FIND. SHELTERS ARE OPEN IN MANY
AREAS...PLEASE CONTACT YOUR LOCAL EMA OFFICE...WATCH LOCAL TV OR
LISTEN TO RADIO FOR LOCATIONS OF THESE SHELTERS.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES WILL STILL OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE REGION
THROUGH 2 PM CDT.  STORM SURGE VALUES BETWEEN 10 AND 14 FEET
ARE EXPECTED AROUND AND ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST OF DENNIS'S CENTER.
THE GREATEST STORM SURGE HAZARD OVER ESCAMBIA BAY FLORIDA...
ESPECIALLY EAST BAY.  RAPID RISES IN WATER LEVELS ARE IN STORE
THROUGH 5 PM CDT OVER ESCAMBIA BAY AS DENNIS APPROACHES. BE PREPARED!
TIDE LEVELS IN MOBILE BAY ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN 4 FEET DUE TO
OFFSHORE WINDS AS DENNIS.  SOME PILING OF WATER ON THE BAY SIDES OF
BOTH THE FORT MORGAN PENINSULA AND DAUPHIN ISLAND ARE POSSIBLE DUE
TO THE INCREASING NORTHEAST WIND FLOW.  STORM TIDES OF 5 TO 7 FEET
ARE POSSIBLE AT THESE LOCATIONS.

...WIND IMPACTS...
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...75 MPH OR GREATER...WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
THE AREA BY NOON AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING.  THIS
WOULD RESULT IN EXTREME DAMAGE TO STRUCTURES.  THESE WILL SPREAD
INLAND BY 6 PM CDT.  SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL OCCUR
AROUND AND ESPECIALLY EAST OF DENNIS' CENTER.  AFTER LANDFALL
...THE CENTER OF DENNIS IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
BALDWIN...CLARKE...CHOCTAW....ESCAMBIA AND MONROE COUNTIES OF ALABAMA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COUNTIES ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHOULD REMAIN ABREAST OF THE LATEST TRACK FORECAST AS
UPDATES OCCUR. EXTENSIVE TO EXTREME TORNADO-LIKE WIND DAMAGE IS
POSSIBLE AROUND...AND ESPECIALLY JUST TO THE IMMEDIATE EAST OF
DENNIS' EYE AS IT MOVES INLAND.

...RIP CURRENTS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS...
STAY OUT OF THE WATER.  HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL PRECLUDE
RECREATIONAL BEACH ACTIVITY THROUGH MONDAY.  DO NOT GO BACK INTO THE
WATER TONIGHT OR ON MONDAY!  RESIDUAL RIP CURRENTS WILL REMAIN.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY DUE
TO A FASTER FORWARD MOTION FROM DENNIS.  WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS
OF BETWEEN 5 AND 7 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 10
INCHES. GROUND CONDITIONS ARE SATURATED AND RAINFALL RUNOFF WILL BE
RAPID...ESPECIALLY NEAR RURAL CREEKS AND STREAMS AND OVER URBAN
CONCRETE SURFACES.  IF FLOODING IS ENCOUNTERED WHILE DRIVING...
REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND AND DON'T DROWN.

LATEST RAINFALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT RIVER FLOODING COULD BE WORSE
THAN IVAN OF 2004...BUT NOT AS SEVERE AS HURRICANE GEORGES OF 1998.
AREA RIVERS WILL GO INTO FLOOD SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AND WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING
MIDWEEK.  THE RIVER FLOODING IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK
OF DENNIS.

...TORNADO THREAT...USUALLY...THE GREATEST THREAT OF HURRICANE
INDUCED TORNADOES IS IN THE OUTER RAINBANDS NORTHEAST OF THE STORM'S
CENTER. A SECOND TORNADO THREAT WILL BE CONCENTRATED AROUND THE EYE
DURING LANDFALL.  OBVIOUSLY...THIS WILL OCCUR LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AS DENNIS PLOWS INLAND.  TORNADO WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO THE IMMINENT THREAT.

...NEW INFORMATION...
HURRICANE DENNIS MADE LANDFALL BETWEEN GULF BREEZE AND NAVARRE
FLORIDA...CLOSEST TO ORIOLE BEACH FLORIDA.

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENTS WILL BE PREPARED EVERY ONE TO TWO HOURS
AND WILL REFLECT THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS OF THE SHORT-TERM MOVEMENT
OF DENNIS. THIS PRODUCT WILL BE SHORTENED TO REFLECT AND FOCUS ON THE
MOST IMPORTANT INFORMATION AS DENNIS EVOLVES.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT SCHEDULED HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
300 PM CDT...OR EARLIER IF NEEDED.

$$

MEDLIN

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