[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS84 KMOB 101827
HLSMOB
ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-102012-

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
127 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2005

...CENTER OF DENNIS MAINTAINS NORTH-NORTHWEST MOTION AND MOVES
TOWARDS ESCAMBIA...SANTA ROSA AND OKALOOSA COUNTIES OF
THE EXTREME NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

..EXTREME WIND DAMAGE...FLOODING AND ISOLATED TORNADOES A CERTAINTY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AROUND THE CENTER OF DENNIS DURING AND AFTER
LANDFALL...

...A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ALABAMA AND
NORTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COASTS...

...AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS
OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...

...AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS
OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA
AND FOR PORTIONS OF INLAND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST
ALABAMA AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS HAVE CHANGED SINCE OUR LAST HURRICANE LOCAL
STATEMENT.  FOR THE LATEST BREAKDOWN ON TROPICAL WARNING PRODUCTS
PLEASE SEE THE BHMNPWMOB PRODUCT.  A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.  FOR THE LATEST PLEASE
SEE SEE THE PRODUCT BHMFFAMOB.

A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND
NORTHWEST FLORIDA UNTIL 200 PM.  A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
ISSUED BY 2 PM CDT.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 1 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 29.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.9 WEST...OR ABOUT 40 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA.  DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH.  ON THIS TRACK...DENNIS SHOULD MAKE
LANDFALL SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF ESCAMBIA BAY THIS AFTERNOON.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 140 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST NEAR THE CATEGORY THREE/FOUR
THRESHOLD ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
AT THIS TIME...ALL PRECAUTIONARY AND PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS SHOULD HAVE
BEEN COMPLETED.  IF YOU DID NOT EVACUATE...SEEK SHELTER IN THE
STURDIEST INTERIOR STRUCTURE YOU CAN FIND. SHELTERS ARE OPEN IN MANY
AREAS...PLEASE CONTACT YOUR LOCAL EMA OFFICE...WATCH LOCAL TV OR
LISTEN TO RADIO FOR LOCATIONS OF THESE SHELTERS.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES WILL STILL OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE REGION
THROUGH 2 PM CDT.  STORM SURGE VALUES BETWEEN 10 AND 14 FEET
ARE EXPECTED AROUND AND ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST OF DENNIS'S CENTER.
THE GREATEST STORM SURGE HAZARD OVER ESCAMBIA BAY FLORIDA...
ESPECIALLY EAST BAY.  RAPID RISES IN WATER LEVELS ARE IN STORE
THROUGH 5 PM CDT AS DENNIS APPROACHES. BE PREPARED!

...WIND IMPACTS...
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...75 MPH OR GREATER...WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE
AREA BY NOON AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING.  DENNIS IS
EXPECTED TO POSSIBLY BE A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE AT LANDFALL.  THIS
WOULD RESULT IN EXTREME DAMAGE TO STRUCTURES.  HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
WILL BE IN PROGRESS ALONG THE COAST BY 230 PM CDT.  THESE
WILL SPREAD INLAND BY 6 PM CDT.  SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL
OCCUR AROUND AND ESPECIALLY EAST OF DENNIS' CENTER.  AFTER LANDFALL
...THE CENTER OF DENNIS IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
BALDWIN...CLARKE...CHOCTAW....ESCAMBIA AND MONROE COUNTIES OF ALABAMA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COUNTIES ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHOULD REMAIN ABREAST OF THE LATEST TRACK FORECAST AS
UPDATES OCCUR. EXTENSIVE TO EXTREME TORNADO-LIKE WIND DAMAGE IS
POSSIBLE AROUND...AND ESPECIALLY JUST TO THE IMMEDIATE EAST OF
DENNIS' EYE AS IT MOVES INLAND.

...RIP CURRENTS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS...
STAY OUT OF THE WATER.  HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL PRECLUDE
RECREATIONAL BEACH ACTIVITY THROUGH MONDAY.  DO NOT GO BACK INTO THE
WATER TONIGHT OR ON MONDAY!  RESIDUAL RIP CURRENTS WILL REMAIN.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY DUE
TO A FASTER FORWARD MOTION FROM DENNIS.  WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS
OF BETWEEN 5 AND 7 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 10
INCHES. GROUND CONDITIONS ARE SATURATED AND RAINFALL RUNOFF WILL BE
RAPID...ESPECIALLY NEAR RURAL CREEKS AND STREAMS AND OVER URBAN
CONCRETE SURFACES.  IF FLOODING IS ENCOUNTERED WHILE DRIVING...
REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND AND DON'T DROWN.

LATEST RAINFALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT RIVER FLOODING COULD BE WORSE
THAN IVAN OF 2004...BUT NOT AS SEVERE AS HURRICANE GEORGES OF 1998.
AREA RIVERS WILL GO INTO FLOOD SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AND WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING
MIDWEEK.  THE RIVER FLOODING IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK
OF DENNIS.

...TORNADO THREAT...USUALLY...THE GREATEST THREAT OF HURRICANE
INDUCED TORNADOES IS IN THE OUTER RAINBANDS NORTHEAST OF THE STORM'S
CENTER. A SECOND TORNADO THREAT WILL BE CONCENTRATED AROUND THE EYE
DURING LANDFALL.  OBVIOUSLY...THIS WILL OCCUR LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AS DENNIS PLOWS INLAND.  TORNADO WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO THE IMMINENT THREAT.

...NEW INFORMATION...
LATEST RAINFALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT RIVER FLOODING COULD BE WORSE
THAN IVAN OF 2004...BUT NOT AS SEVERE AS HURRICANE GEORGES OF 1998.
NUMEROUS AREA RIVERS WILL GO INTO FLOOD SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AND
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THROUGH MIDWEEK.  THE RIVER
FLOODING IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK OF DENNIS.  INLAND
RIVER FLOODING KILLS.  TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN!

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENTS WILL BE PREPARED EVERY ONE TO TWO HOURS
AND WILL REFLECT THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS OF THE SHORT-TERM MOVEMENT
OF DENNIS. THIS PRODUCT WILL BE SHORTENED TO REFLECT AND FOCUS ON THE
MOST IMPORTANT INFORMATION AS DENNIS EVOLVES.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT SCHEDULED HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
300 PM CDT...OR EARLIER IF NEEDED.

$$

MEDLIN

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