[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101201
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN JUL 10 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
AT 8 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 28.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 86.5 WEST OR ABOUT 140
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA AND ABOUT 190 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI. HURRICANE DENNIS IS MOVING
NORTH-NORTHWEST 13 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
931 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO
155 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC AND THE FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. HURRICANE DENNIS IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...THE
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO FALL. SOLID NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SURROUND DENNIS FROM 27N TO 29N BETWEEN 85W AND
87W...NOT COUNTING THE BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH
ARE SWIRLING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF DENNIS. THESE BANDS STRETCH
FROM 24N TO SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF GEORGIA...ALABAMA...AND
MISSISSIPPI...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...EASILY BETWEEN 80W AND
90W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 11N26W MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT.
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ITCZ FROM 8N
TO 10N BETWEEN 20W AND 28W.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 39W/40W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST 10 TO
15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 38W AND 44W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ITCZ PRECIPITATION
ELSEWHERE FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 37W AND 42W.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 67W/68W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST 10 TO
15 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF AN ATLANTIC-
TO-CARIBBEAN SEA MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...FROM 23N62W
TO 16N66W TO THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 11N69W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 14N TO 15N BETWEEN 66W AND 69W.
INDIVIDUAL CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG...
FROM 9N TO 14N BETWEEN 60W AND 65W.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ 12N15W 10N20W 10N24W...10N29W 10N37W...9N43W 8N52W 10N63W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 6N TO 11N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 20W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE FROM 5N
TO 10N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W...AND FROM 2N TO 9N BETWEEN 40W AND
55W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
HURRICANE DENNIS DOMINATES THE WEATHER STORY FOR THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA
INCLUDING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AREA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
WATERS ADJACENT TO FLORIDA AND OVER THE BAHAMAS. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE RUNS FROM WESTERN CUBA INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST OF DENNIS
EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER TO MIDDLE TEXAS COAST TO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL GULF. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS THE GULF
EVERYWHERE WEST OF HURRICANE DENNIS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
HURRICANE DENNIS DOMINATES THE WEATHER STORY IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA...INCLUDING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM WESTERN CUBA INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ORIGINATES IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 26N58W AND EXTENDS TO 22N60W...ENTERING
THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER TO 13N67W...BRINGING WITH IT
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
IT. THE 67W/68W TROPICAL WAVE BRINGS ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
FROM 14N TO 15N BETWEEN 66W AND 69W...AND INDIVIDUAL CLUSTERS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG...FROM 9N TO 14N BETWEEN
60W AND 65W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW SPINS AWAY FROM THE CIRCULATION
AROUND HURRICANE DENNIS...INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM THE
BAHAMAS TOWARD CUBA. WEAKER MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES
TOWARD THE BAHAMAS AND EASTERN FLORIDA FROM THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...AS IT SHOOTS WESTWARD AND AWAY FROM A 23N61W MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. THIS CYCLONIC CENTER IS
PART OF THE ATLANTIC-TO-VENEZUELA TROUGH. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THROUGH 32N35W TO 27N43W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
IS FOUND FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 80W.

$$
MT



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