[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS84 KMOB 100253 CCA
HLSMOB
ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-100431-

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
952 PM CDT SAT JUL 9 2005

...LATEST TRACK OF HURRICANE DENNIS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WESTWARD...

...A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ALABAMA AND
NORTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COASTS...

...AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS
OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...

...AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS
OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST
FLORIDA...AND FOR PORTIONS OF INLAND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL AREAS OF MOBILE
AND BALDWIN COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...AS WELL AS ESCAMBIA...
SANTA ROSA...AND OKALOOSA COUNTIES IN THE EXTREME WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE.  INLAND HURRICANE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR INLAND
MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES OF ALABAMA AND INLAND ESCAMBIA...SANTA
ROSA...AND OKALOOSA COUNTIES OF NORTHWEST FLORIDA.  AN INLAND
HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CHOCTAW...CLARKE... CONECUH...
ESCAMBIA...MONROE...WASHINGTON AND WILCOX COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST
ALABAMA AND GREENE AND WAYNE COUNTIES OF INLAND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
BUTLER...CRENSHAW AND COVINGTON COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL ALABAMA AND GEORGE...PERRY AND STONE COUNTIES OF INLAND
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...EXTREME SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND THE EXTREME
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 930 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.3 WEST. THIS IS ABOUT 300 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF DAUPHIN ISLAND ALABAMA...OR ABOUT 285 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF ORANGE BEACH ALABAMA.  REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
NEAR 125 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  THIS MAKES DENNIS A CATEGORY 3
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.  ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
EXPECTED...AND DENNIS COULD BECOME A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE BEFORE
LANDFALL ON THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.  THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER IS 941 MB...27.79 INCHES.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
SHELTERS ARE OPEN IN MANY AREAS...PLEASE CONTACT YOUR LOCAL EMA
OFFICE...WATCH LOCAL TV OR LISTEN TO RADIO FOR LOCATIONS OF THESE
SHELTERS.  SOME TYPE OF EVACUATIONS HAVE BEEN ORDERED FOR ALL OF THE
COASTAL COUNTIES.  IF YOU LIVE NEAR THE WATER AND ARE ORDERED TO
EVACUATE...DO SO.  EVERY HURRICANE IS DIFFERENT AND JUST BECAUSE YOU
HAVE MADE IT THROUGH OTHER STORMS WITH VERY LITTLE DAMAGE...DO NOT
ASSUME THAT DENNIS WILL BE THE SAME. DON'T BE A STATISTIC.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES WILL OCCUR AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY. COMBINED
WITH SURGE...THE LATTER COULD RESULT IN A TOTAL STORM SURGE
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 11 AND 16 FEET.  THIS IS ESPECIALLY THE CASE JUST
TO THE EAST OF WHERE DENNIS MAKES LANDFALL. THE LATEST FORECAST
PLACES THE GREATEST STORM SURGE HAZARD FROM GULF SHORES EAST TO
ESCAMBIA BAY.  THIS WILL RESULT IN MAJOR STRUCTURAL DAMAGE ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST...SIMILAR TO THAT PRODUCED BY HURRICANE IVAN OF
2004.  RESIDENTS OF MOBILE BAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO REMAIN ABREAST OF
THIS SITUATION...BECAUSE IF DENNIS' TRACK SHIFTS ANY FARTHER TO THE
WEST OVERNIGHT...MOBILE BAY FORECAST STORM SURGE VALUES COULD
INCREASE TO THE 11 TO 16 FEET RANGE.

...WIND IMPACTS...
GIVEN THE CURRENT TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST...DENNIS SHOULD BE
VERY SIMILAR TO HURRICANE IVAN OF 2004. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS OF 40 MPH OR GREATER WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE COASTAL AREAS
VERY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL MAKE DRIVING CONDITIONS
HAZARDOUS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...75 MPH OR GREATER...WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE AREA AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING.  DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO POSSIBLY BE A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE
AT LANDFALL.  THUS...MAJOR STRUCTURAL DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS WILL SPREAD INTO THE INLAND COUNTIES SUNDAY EVENING WITH
THE HIGHEST WINDS BEING NEAR THE CENTER AND JUST TO THE EAST OF
DENNIS.  THERE IS ONE LAST CHANCE TO SECURE ALL LOOSE OBJECTS.
UNSECURED LOOSE OBJECTS CAN BECOME DEADLY PROJECTILES IN SUCH HIGH
WIND CONDITIONS.

...RIP CURRENTS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS...
RIP CURRENTS ARE LIKELY THIS EVENING. ON SUNDAY...OF COURSE...
HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL PRECLUDE RECREATIONAL BEACH ACTIVITY.
PEOPLE ARE DISCOURAGED FROM SWIMMING...SURFING AND RECREATIONAL
BOATING UNTIL DENNIS MOVES WELL EAST OF THE AREA. DO NOT GO BACK
INTO THE WATER TOO EARLY...AS RESIDUAL RIP CURRENTS WILL REMAIN.

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 15 INCHES POSSIBLE AS DENNIS MAKES LANDFALL
AND MOVES INLAND. GROUND CONDITIONS ARE STILL VERY MOIST DUE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM TROPICAL STORM CINDY AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE PAST WEEK. THIS WILL PROMOTE
MORE RUNOFF AND RESULT IN A DANGEROUS FLASH FLOOD SITUATION AS DENNIS
MOVES INLAND. IF FLOODING IS ENCOUNTERED...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND
AND DON'T DROWN.

...TORNADO THREAT...
THE TORNADO THREAT HAS INCREASED EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 LATE THIS
EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO AS DENNIS MOVES FURTHER WESTWARD.
USUALLY...THE GREATEST THREAT FOR HURRICANE INDUCED TORNADOES IS IN
THE OUTER RAINBANDS NORTHEAST OF THE STORM'S CENTER.  THE THREAT
WILL SHIFT WESTWARD TONIGHT AS THE CENTER OF DENNIS MOVES FURTHER
WESTWARD.  THE SECOND TORNADO THREAT WILL BE CONCENTRATED AROUND THE
EYE DURING LANDFALL. OBVIOUSLY...THIS WILL BE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
STAY TUNED FOR POSSIBLE TORNADO WARNINGS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT SCHEDULED HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
MIDNIGHT.

$$

MEDLIN

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