[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT74 KNHC 092254
SPFAT4
HURRICANE DENNIS SPECIAL PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 PM EDT SAT JUL 09 2005

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 7 PM EDT...2300Z...THE CENTER OF DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE  84.9 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  2PM EDT TUE JUL 12 2005

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

29.9N  87.2W      38  X  X  X 38   PENSACOLA FL      32  3  X  X 35
32.3N  88.4W       8 22  1  X 31   MOBILE AL         27  6  X  X 33
34.2N  89.3W       X 20  4  1 25   GULFPORT MS       22  5  X  1 28
SAVANNAH GA        X  X  X  2  2   BURAS LA          13  3  1  X 17
VENICE FL          2  X  X  X  2   NEW ORLEANS LA     7  7  X  1 15
TAMPA FL           2  X  X  1  3   NEW IBERIA LA      1  1  1  2  5
CEDAR KEY FL       3  2  X  1  6   PORT ARTHUR TX     X  X  X  2  2
ST MARKS FL        8  6  X  X 14   GULF 29N 85W      33  X  X  X 33
APALACHICOLA FL   24  2  X  X 26   GULF 29N 87W      46  X  X  X 46
PANAMA CITY FL    28  2  X  X 30   GULF 28N 89W       8  2  X  X 10

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2PM SUN
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  2PM SUN TO  2AM MON
C FROM  2AM MON TO  2PM MON
D FROM  2PM MON TO  2PM TUE
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2PM TUE
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER BEVEN


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