[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 090617
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT JUL 09 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
THE EYE OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED BY THE KEY WEST FLORIDA
RADAR NEAR 23.3N 82.3W AT 09/0500 UTC...JUST NORTH OF THE CITY
OF HAVANA CUBA...OR ABOUT ABOUT 95 MILES/150 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF KEY WEST FLORIDA. IT IS MOVING NORTHWEST 12 KT. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS NEAR 962 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED WAS NEAR 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC AND THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
DENNIS HAS WEAKENED COMPARATIVELY AS IT HAS BEEN OVER CUBA FOR
THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...JUST NOTING THE FILLING IN OF THE LOW
PRESSURE FROM 952 MB TO 962 MB. THE EYE STRUCTURE HAS WEAKENED
A BIT. THE CENTER HAS RE-EMERGED OVER THE WATERS OF THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AROUND WHICH DENNIS IS MOVING
STILL RUNS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N70W...ACROSS FLORIDA
INTO THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH FROM 24 HOURS AGO...MOVING THROUGH TEXAS EASTWARD...
REMAINS AND NOW EXTENDS FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE TEXAS COAST. ALL THE CLOUDS AND UGLY
WEATHER ARE EAST OF 86W/87W...WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY
AIR WEST OF THIS BOUNDARY. A SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT...WITH THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...LINGERS FROM EASTERN GEORGIA TO
NORTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TO A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER JUST
INLAND OF THE UPPER TEXAS COAST NEAR 31N94W. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE ALONG THE TEXAS COAST SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH OF HOUSTON. ONE
BAND OF RAIN WHICH CONTAINS A SOLID AREA OF NUMEROUS STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS WITHIN 40 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
22N78W 18N81W FROM CENTRAL CUBA SOUTHWESTWARD. ANOTHER THINNER
BAND IS WITHIN 20 TO 25 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 23N80W 20N82W
SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST OF THE COMPARATIVELY WIDER BAND OF
PRECIPITATION. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTS OF WIND ARE
IN THE RAINBANDS WHICH POPULATE THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
DENNIS...FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO 30N IN
NORTHERN FLORIDA BETWEEN 79W IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND 86W/87W
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER
POSSIBLE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE WEST OF 32N76W 24N70W
COVERING THE BAHAMAS ISLANDS IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN.
CLOUD COVER IN GENERAL AROUND HURRICANE DENNIS IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA IS EXTENSIVE NORTH OF 13N WEST OF 68W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

EAST ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W/30W SOUTH OF 19N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SEEN FROM 7N TO 13N BETWEEN 28W
AND 33W IN LINES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A 1013 MB LOW
PRESSURE IS LOCATED ALONG THIS WAVE NEAR 12N.

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 11N36W...MOVING WEST
10 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN A LINE FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W
DIRECTLY RELATED TO THIS WAVE. THE PRECIPITATION PROBABLY IS
MORE RELATED TO THE ITCZ THAN TO THIS LOW CENTER.

CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W/44W SOUTH OF 19N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NO PRECIPITATION IS DIRECTLY RELATED
TO THIS WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 59W/60W IS SET TO ENTER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW CONTINUES TO CUT
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WHICH THIS WAVE IS MOVING. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 11N
TO 16N BETWEEN 59W AND 63W.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ 11N16W 11N21W 12N27W...12N31W 11N35W...10N39W 7N42W...
7N45W 8N58W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 8N TO 12N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 24W...AND AGAIN
FROM 5N TO 9N BETWEEN 40W AND 55W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
HURRICANE DENNIS DOMINATES THE WEATHER STORY FOR THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AREA AND OTHER PARTS OF
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS
ADJACENT TO FLORIDA AND OVER THE BAHAMAS. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH FROM 24 HOURS AGO...MOVING THROUGH TEXAS
EASTWARD...REMAINS AND NOW EXTENDS FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE TEXAS COAST. ALL THE CLOUDS AND UGLY
WEATHER ARE EAST OF 86W/87W...WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR
WEST OF THIS BOUNDARY. A SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT...WITH THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...LINGERS FROM EASTERN GEORGIA TO
NORTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TO A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER JUST
INLAND OF THE UPPER TEXAS COAST NEAR 31N94W. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE ALONG THE TEXAS COAST SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH OF HOUSTON.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
HURRICANE DENNIS DOMINATES THE WEATHER STORY IN THE AREA OF THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL AND SURROUNDING PARTS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE AREA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ORIGINATES IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 25N56W AND EXTENDS TO 22N60...ENTERING
THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER TO 13N67W...BRINGING WITH IT
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
IT. THE 59W/60W TROPICAL WAVE BRINGS SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS...FOR THE MOMENT...TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
ISLANDS FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 59W AND 63W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM 32N704W...ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO
THE EAST-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS AROUND
HURRICANE DENNIS ARE WEST OF THE LINE FROM 32N76W TO 24N70W
COVERING THE BAHAMAS ISLANDS IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR
25N70W...ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN BETWEEN THIS 25N70W
A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM 30N58W TO 25N62W. CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION AND THE ATLANTIC-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH. MIDDLE
LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM A NOT WELL PRONOUNCED MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE WATERS ROUGHLY FROM 10N TO 20N
BETWEEN 35W AND 50W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 30N58W
25N62W SURFACE TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1023 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 31N64W TO 30N80W.

$$
MT




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