[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT44 KNHC 072053
TCDAT4
HURRICANE DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU JUL 07 2005

LATEST DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS SHOW THAT THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS BEEN FALLING AT SLIGHTLY OVER 1 MB PER HOUR
SINCE EARLY THIS MORNING.  THE EYE HAS SHRUNK TO ABOUT 9 N MI
DIAMETER AND THE EYEWALL IS NOW CLOSED.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
REMAIN QUITE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
SHOWS A BORDERLINE CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE IN 12 HOURS.  DENNIS IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT OVER CUBA...BUT IT SHOULD REGAIN
STRENGTH WHEN IT EMERGES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
ALTHOUGH THE WIND SHEAR MAY BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST MAINTAINS DENNIS AS A MAJOR HURRICANE UP TO LANDFALL IN
THAT AREA.

THE MOTION CONTINUES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...310/13.  THIS MOTION
SHOULD TAKE THE CENTER OF THIS DANGEROUS HURRICANE OVER CENTRAL
CUBA WITHIN 24 HOURS.  DENNIS IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  ALTHOUGH THIS SOUNDS
SIMPLE ENOUGH...THE DETAILS OF THE TURN AROUND THE RIDGE ARE
IMPORTANT FOR RESIDENTS OF FLORIDA.  IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS...THE
GFS HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE FARTHER EAST AND IS NOW VERY CLOSE TO THE
GFDL TRACK.  THESE TWO MODELS ARE THE EASTERNMOST OF THE DYNAMICAL
SUITE.  THE U.K. MET. OFFICE MODEL REMAINS WELL WEST OF ALMOST ALL
OTHER GUIDANCE.  OUR FORECAST IS ADJUSTED ONLY SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST
AND IS VERY CLOSE TO BOTH THE SIMPLE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS TRACK...
CONU...AND TO THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW POSTED FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS SINCE
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS COULD REACH THOSE ISLANDS BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      07/2100Z 19.0N  76.6W   100 KT
 12HR VT     08/0600Z 20.4N  78.4W   115 KT
 24HR VT     08/1800Z 22.3N  80.5W    95 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     09/0600Z 24.2N  82.5W   100 KT
 48HR VT     09/1800Z 26.0N  84.0W   105 KT
 72HR VT     10/1800Z 30.0N  86.5W   105 KT
 96HR VT     11/1800Z 35.0N  88.0W    30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     12/1800Z 38.0N  87.5W    20 KT...INLAND


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