[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 062359
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED JUL 06 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE DENNIS IS CENTERED NEAR 16.1N 72.5W OR ABOUT 315 MILES
ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AT 06/2200 UTC MOVING WNW 12 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED 70 KT GUSTS TO 85 KT. SEE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC AND FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.  SPIRAL BANDS ARE OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO
RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND JAMAICA.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 67W-76W...AND FROM 18N-21N
BETWEEN 64W-74W.  DENNIS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY
AND TRACK TOWARDS JAMAICA...AND LATER W CUBA.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

EAST ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF
31W/32W S OF 23N MOVING W 10 KT.  CONVECTION IS ALIGNED ALONG
THE ITCZ WITH SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 31W-40W.

WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W S OF 11N MOVING W 15 KT.
CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE NEAR THE ITCZ WITH ISOLATED MODERATE
FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 48W-57W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 11N19W 7N35W 7N55W... THEN
OVER S AMERICA. NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEST AFRICAN DISTURBANCE LINE THAT MOVED OFF THE AFRICAN
COAST IS FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 19W-29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
T.D. CINDY IS PRESENTLY INLAND OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA MOVING NE.
THE WEATHER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS CLEARED BEHIND CINDY AS
DRY AIR IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS MOVED IN FROM THE W/NW.  A
SURFACE TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE
CENTRAL GULF ALONG 30N86W 24N93W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
30 NM OF THE TROUGH.  FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF.  AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER S
FLORIDA NEAR 26N81W WITH MODERATE SUBSIDENCE THAT IS ALSO
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER.  THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE HURRICANE
DENNIS WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE SE GULF FRI AND SAT.

CARIBBEAN...
THE MAIN CONCERN OVER THE CARIBBEAN AT THE MOMENT IS HURRICANE
DENNIS. THE SYSTEM HAS GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN.  SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR FURTHER DISCUSSION.
ELSEWHERE THE WEATHER IS FAIRLY NICE. DRY AIR ALOFT IS LOCKED IN
AHEAD OF DENNIS' PATH OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND IS PRODUCING
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES W OF 78W.  INLAND HEATING HAS PRODUCED
PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER N
NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...EL SALVADOR...AND GUATEMALA.

ATLANTIC...
A WEAK 1019 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 28N75W WHICH
WILL DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.  THE TAIL END OF A COLD
FRONT IS FURTHER E ALONG 32N57W 30N60W 29N68W.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT.  A STRONG 1035 MB HIGH
NEAR 43N29W DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND
E OF 50W.  IN THE UPPER LEVEL...A SHORTWAVE TROF DIGS DOWN JUST
S OF BERMUDA.  AN UPPER LOW IS LOCATED JUST NE OF THE NRN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...NEAR 21N55W BUT THE ADJACENT AREA IS COVERED
BY SO MUCH DRY AIR THAT THERE IS LITTLE ACTIVE WEATHER. THE
UPPER LOW IS CONNECTED TO A SECOND UPPER LOW NEAR THE AZORES BY
A WEAK TROF/SHEAR AXIS WHICH MARKS THE NRN EDGE OF AN AREA OF
STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE E ATLC WATERS. DRY AIR EXTENDS INTO
THE LOW-LEVELS AND REACHES ACROSS THE ENTIRE ATLC TO THE LESSER
ANTILLES...CHARACTERIZED BY STABLE CONDITIONS WITH FLAT
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LIES ROUGHLY ALONG
27N60W 32N43W WITH LIGHT EASTERLY TRADES TO THE S.

$$
FORMOSA


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