[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 060559
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED JUL 06 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM CINDY IS CENTERED NEAR 29.4N 90.1W AT 0600 UTC
ABOUT 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA OR ABOUT 40
MILES SOUTH OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA MOVING NNE AT 11 KT. THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. SEE THE
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC AND/OR MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. CINDY HAS MADE LANDFALL OVER SE LOUISIANA MOVING INTO
MISSISSIPPI WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS N OF 28N FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TO LOUISIANA BETWEEN 86W-91W. CINDY WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER LAND.

TROPICAL STORM DENNIS IS CENTERED NEAR 14.8N 69.7W AT 0600 UTC
ABOUT 310 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI OR ABOUT
495 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA MOVING WNW AT 15
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEE THE
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND/OR MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. DENNIS HAS AN IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE PRESENTATION WITH
BANDING IN ALL QUADRANTS...EXCELLENT OUTFLOW AND NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION COVERING THE AREA FROM 12.5N-16N BETWEEN 66.5W-71W.
DENNIS IS TO THE S OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC
WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE SYSTEM MOVING GENERALLY WNW FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AT LEAST. HEAVY RAINS WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 58W-72W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

E ATLC WAVE IS ALONG 28W/29W S OF 16N MOVING W 10 KT. BROAD
CURVATURE IS IN THE LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION WITHIN THE ITCZ.

WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W/60W S OF 14N MOVING W 15-20 KT.
WAVE IS NOT WELL DEFINED AND QUIKSCAT IS NOT SHOWING MUCH NEAR
THE WAVE. THE WAVE IS WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES THE MUCH LARGER
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH DENNIS. INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED AS THIS WAVE APPROACHES THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND T.S.
DENNIS.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 14N16W 10N25W  8N35W 8N60W.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA
WITHIN 120 NM FROM 8N-12.5N. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM
10W-14W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N
TO THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 24W-55W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES
DIPPING S TO OVER TEXAS AND N MEXICO INCLUDING THE NW GULF.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA N OF 26N W OF CINDY. MID/UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED NEAR 24N90W NE OVER
THE FAR SE UNITED STATES TO BEYOND 32N82W. OTHER THAN A BAND OF
HIGH CLOUDS THAT EXTENDS WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE FROM THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA NEAR TAMPA TO OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. DRY ALOFT IS
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION EXCEPT AS NOTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH
CINDY. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION INLAND OVER MEXICO W OF 91W AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND OVER SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. THE GULF WILL
CONTINUE TO BE DRY FOR TODAY AND THU WITH MOISTURE FROM DENNIS
MOVING INTO THE AREA ON FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
STORMY WEATHER WITH BANDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COVERS THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS TO HISPANIOLA COURTESY OF MOISTURE FROM DENNIS
AND FAVORABLE BANDING FEATURES. MID/UPPER HIGH IS SITUATED NEAR
DENNIS WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS NE TO 20N60W. ZONAL EASTERLY
FLOW COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 73W. DRY AIR ALOFT WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF
80W. HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD WESTWARD AS DENNIS
CROSSES THE CARIBBEAN. DENNIS' WNW TRACK AND INTENSIFICATION TO
HURRICANE STATUS ARE THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS IN THE CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MID/UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE GULF COVERS THE W ATLC W OF
67W WITH A 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH LOCATED OFF THE FLORIDA COAST
NEAR 28N79W. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS N OF 29N FROM 57W-67W WITH A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH 32N61W TO 31N65W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 125/150 NM OF LINE FROM 29N70W
29N63W TO BEYOND 32N59W. WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE
EASTERN/CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE AXIS THROUGH 32N37W SW TO 26N47W.
MID/UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC N OF 14N E OF
THE THE ABOVE UPPER TROUGH WITH THE UPPER HIGH CENTERED BETWEEN
THE CAPE VERDE AND CANARY ISLANDS. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE COVERS THE ATLC N OF 15N E OF 55W. EASTERLY TRADES HAVE
SLACKENING CONSIDERABLY E OF 40W AND NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS W OF
40W EXCEPT NEAR DENNIS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS BETWEEN 30W-45W
KEEPING THINGS DRY WITH THE TYPICAL SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS N OF THE ITCZ. BELOW AVERAGE SHEAR CONTINUES THROUGHOUT
THE DEEP TROPICS BECAUSE OF THE ENHANCED TROPICAL RIDGES.

$$
WALLACE


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