[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT43 KNHC 060251
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE JUL 05 2005

A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPED OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER AND
BRIEFLY WRAPPED UP AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE FOR ABOUT AN HOUR SO AND
RECON REPORTS INDICATED THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAD DECREASED TO 992
MB. REPORTS FROM AN OFFSHORE OIL RIG INDICATED WIND GUSTS TO 99 MPH
HAD OCCURRED AROUND 23Z AT 150 FT ABOVE THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...
SINCE THAT TIME THE RADAR SIGNATURE HAS BECOME LESS DISTINCT AND A
RECENT RECON REPORT INDICATED THE PRESSURE HAD RISEN TO 997 MB. ONE
POSSIBLE EXPLANATION FOR THE WEAKENING IS COLD UPWELLING OCCURRING
OVER THE SHALLOW SHELF WATERS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA
COAST.

INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 020/11.  CINDY BRIEFLY SLOWED DOWN AS IT
NEARED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS BETWEEN 28-29N LATITUDE...BUT NOW
APPEARS TO HAVE STARTED TO ACCELERATE SLIGHTLY. NHC TRACK GUIDANCE
MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND AGREE ON A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST BY 12-18 HOURS AND GRADUAL ACCELERATION AS THE CYCLONE
GETS PICKED UP BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL OVER
LAND. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS JUST A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS CLOSE TO THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.

ONLY SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS...EVEN THOUGH
CINDY WILL BE OVER "LAND" IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. ONCE THE
CYCLONE MOVES INLAND OVER MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...MORER RAPID
WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR. BY 72 HOURS...THE REMNANT CIRCULATION WILL
BE NEAR THE DELMARVA PENINSULA/ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND SOME SLIGHT
STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR...BUT NOT AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      06/0300Z 29.0N  90.1W    60 KT
 12HR VT     06/1200Z 30.4N  89.3W    50 KT...NEAR MISS. COAST
 24HR VT     07/0000Z 32.1N  87.6W    30 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     07/1200Z 33.7N  85.2W    25 KT...INLAND BECOMING ET
 48HR VT     08/0000Z 35.1N  82.1W    20 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     09/0000Z 38.8N  75.2W    25 KT...NEAR DELMARVA AND ET
 96HR VT     10/0000Z 41.5N  70.5W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     11/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL ZONE


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