[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT44 KNHC 052057
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE JUL 05 2005

DENNIS IS STEADILY BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS
AT 18Z WERE T2.5/35 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND THIS WILL BE
THE ADVISORY INTENSITY. CONVECTION HAD BEEN A BIT ON THE SPOTTY
SIDE EARLIER TODAY...BUT IT HAS SINCE BECOME MORE CONSOLIDATED NEAR
THE ESTIMATED CENTER...SO DENNIS SEEMS POISED TO INTENSIFY THIS
EVENING. THE CARIBBEAN SEA AHEAD OF THE STORM IS PLENTY WARM...AND
THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SHIPS BRINGS THE SYSTEM TO 92 KT...AND GFDL
FORECASTS 76 KT...IN 72 HOURS BEFORE THE SYSTEM CROSSES CUBA. DUE
TO THE UNCERTAINTIES WITH INTENSITY FORECASTING...INCLUDING IN THIS
CASE HOW DENNIS WILL INTERACT WITH THE LARGER ISLANDS OF HISPANIOLA
AND CUBA...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN
SHIPS AND GFDL BUT STILL MAKES DENNIS A HURRICANE BY 36 HOURS.

DENNIS IS MOVING FAIRLY RAPIDLY...WITH INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATED AT
290/17. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT ON THIS GENERAL
MOTION CONTINUING FOR ABOUT THE NEXT THREE DAYS...WITH THE PRIMARY
STEERING MECHANISM BEING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. BEYOND THAT TIME...A WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP...AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SHARPENS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS SHOULD INDUCE A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ALONG BUT A
LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK.

BASED ON THE FORECAST...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS BE ISSUED FOR THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...AND JAMAICA.

FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      05/2100Z 14.2N  68.3W    35 KT
 12HR VT     06/0600Z 15.4N  70.6W    45 KT
 24HR VT     06/1800Z 17.0N  73.4W    55 KT
 36HR VT     07/0600Z 18.4N  75.8W    65 KT
 48HR VT     07/1800Z 19.9N  78.4W    70 KT
 72HR VT     08/1800Z 22.0N  82.0W    75 KT
 96HR VT     09/1800Z 24.0N  84.5W    80 KT
120HR VT     10/1800Z 26.5N  86.5W    80 KT


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