[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050627 RRA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE JUL 05 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE IS CENTERED NEAR 24.5N 90.0W AT 0600
UTC ABOUT 315 MILES S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MOVING NNW 11 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009
MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40
KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC AND/OR MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. SYSTEM APPEARS TO BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED ALTHOUGH
THE ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO THE NE QUADRANT.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 225 NM
OF THE CENTER IN THE NE QUADRANT. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 24N TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
FROM 86W-90W.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR HAS DEVELOPED FROM THE STRONG TROPICAL
WAVE CENTERED NEAR 12.5N 63.1W AT 0300 UTC OR 100 MILES WNW OF
GRENADA. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEE THE
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND/OR MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. LARGE OUTFLOW PATTERN EXISTS BUT APPEARS TO BE TOO
LARGE FOR RAPID DEVELOPMENT. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE 15N63W-12N64W. BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN 56W-70W INCLUDING
THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE MAJOR FOCUS BY MID
WEEK AS IT APPROACHES THE W CARIBBEAN AND THEN INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

E ATLC WAVE IS ALONG 22W/23W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT. BROAD
LOW LEVEL CURVATURE IS OBSERVED APPROACHING THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W/50W S OF 15N MOVING W
15-20 KT. WAVE IS NOT WELL-DEFINED WITH A SMALL PROTRUSION NORTH
OF THE ITCZ MARKING THE POSITION. WAVE IS BENEATH DRY UPPER AIR
THUS LIMITING ANY ANY DEEP CONVECTION.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 15N16W 8N27W 8N48W 12N60W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE 120/150 NM
OF THE AXIS FROM 23W-33W. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF THE
ITCZ AXIS TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA FROM 40W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
T.D. THREE IN THE CENTRAL GULF IS THE MAIN FOCUS TONIGHT.
MID/UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES INTO THE
NW GULF BUILDING MID/UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
INTO THE E UNITED STATES. DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH IS N OF 25N W OF 92W AND LIMITING CONVECTION TO THE W OF
T.D. THREE. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER HIGH
LOCATED NEAR T.D. THREE NE ACROSS FLORIDA TO BEYOND 32N78W. THE
UPPER HIGH WILL SHIFT E TO OVER FLORIDA IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
T.D. FOUR IN THE SE CARIBBEAN IS ANOTHER AREA OF INTEREST
TONIGHT. THE MID/UPPER RIDGE OVER GULF E OF T.D. THREE COVERS
THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 15N W OF 73W WITH EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE
SW CARIBBEAN. THIS HAS LEFT THE CARIBBEAN W OF 75W UNDER STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR WITH ONLY A SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN A 45 NM RADIUS OF
16N79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND AND
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA COURTESY OF
T.D. THREE. BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN
EXTENDING FROM A WEAK UPPER HIGH NEAR T.D. FOUR ENE ACROSS THE
LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 15N60W TO 20N50W. THE DRY CONDITIONS W OF
75W ARE BEING QUICKLY ERODED AWAY BY MOISTURE FROM THE ADVANCING
T.D. FOUR IN THE SE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 20N FROM 54W-70W. THE MOISTURE WILL SHIFT
TO THE NW OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS T.D. FOUR MOVES TOWARD CUBA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER
HIGH OVER THE GULF ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR DAYTONA BEACH TO BEYOND
33N70W WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW W OF 60W. BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH COVERS THE ATLC N OF 21N FROM 30W-60W. AT THE SURFACE...
A WEAK AREA OF TROUGHINESS IS GENERATING A NARROW SWATH OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 30N54W TO 25N59W.
BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC E OF 30W WITH THE
AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 20N. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE COVERS THE E ATLC N OF 15N E OF 55W. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC S OF 20N FROM
30W-50W AND THE E ATLC N OF 22N E OF 30W...THUS KEEPING THE AREA
RATHER DRY WITH THE TYPICAL SCATTERED/BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS
OBSERVED.

$$
WALLACE


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net