[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040006
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN JUL 03 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE IS CENTERED NEAR 18.4N 87.1W OR ABOUT
80 NM EAST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO AT 03/2100 UTC.  IT IS MOVING WNW
AT 7 KT.  ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.  SEE
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/
WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.  THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION WILL
BE MOVING OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND EXTREME WESTERN CUBA.  PRESENTLY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM 18N-23N BETWEEN 86W-90W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

E-CENTRAL TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W S OF 15N MOVING W 10 TO 15
KT.  A SMALL SWIRL IS NOTED ON THE ITCZ NEAR 10N38W.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE CONFINED TO THE ITCZ FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 35W-42W.
THE GFS SUGGESTS THIS WAVE COULD IMPACT THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
LATE THU.

STRONG W ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED FROM E GUYANA TO 17N53W
WITH A BROAD 1012 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 12N57W.  THE WHOLE
SYSTEM IS MOVING W AT 15 KT.  THIS WAVE IS BETTER ORGANIZED NOW.
BANDING-TYPE FEATURES ARE NOTED W OF THE LOW. CONVECTION WITH
GUSTY WINDS ARE SPREADING OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG IS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 57W-64W...AND FROM
8N-13N BETWEEN 50W-56W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N17W 9N25W 10N38W 12N57W 10N64W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-11N
BETWEEN 20W-23W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
10-15 KT SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS PREVAILS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF
OF MEXICO.  THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE IS CONVECTION ALONG THE
N COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DUE TO T.D. THREE MOVING WNW.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXTENDS 60 NM N
OF THE COAST.  ELSEWHERE...NORTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA HAS
ISOLATED MODERATE...AIR MASS TYPE...CONVECTION FROM 27N-30N
BETWEEN 80W-82W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
IS CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N85W PRODUCING
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO E OF 94W.  A
SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR
20N96W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS ONLY WITHIN 120 NM FROM THE CENTER.
EXPECT CONVECTION TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS DUE TO T.D. THREE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA HAS INCLEMENT WEATHER W OF 84W DUE TO T.D.
THREE...WHILE THE E CARIBBEAN HAS A NEW TROPICAL WAVE PRODUCING
WEATHER S OF 10N AND E OF 64W MOVING W.  THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
BETWEEN 64W AND 84W HAS FAIR WEATHER WITH 15-20 KT EASTERLY
WIND. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS W OF 80W
PRODUCING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR INCREASED DEVELOPMENT OVER
T.D. THREE.  EASTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS THE REMAINDER OF
THE SEA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
LARGE 1034 MB HIGH NEAR 38N41W DOMINATES THE AREA EXCEPT FOR
TROPICAL WAVES ALONG ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY.  UPPER RIDGING
CONTROLS THE W ATLC WITH WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
WITHIN 90 NM OF 30N75W AHEAD OF A STATIONARY FRONT.  ANY SIGN OF
THE MID-OCEANIC TROUGH HAS SHIFTED WELL TO THE N FROM 20N63W TO
31N60W WITH INSTABILITY ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS NEAR 28N60W.
BROAD TROUGHING COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 20N W OF 30W WITH A
SHORTWAVE NEAR 32N48W RESPONSIBLE FOR ISOLATED TSTMS.  YET
ANOTHER TROUGH DIPS INTO THE FAR NE ATLC NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS
BUT IS VIRTUALLY WEATHER-LESS DUE TO VERY DRY AIR.  FARTHER
S...THE DEEP TROPICS ARE CONTROLLED BY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH
RIDGING FROM W MAURITANIA TO THE SOUTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
DIFFLUENT FLOW TOWARD THE WESTERN END OF THIS RIDGE IS HELPING
TO SPARK TSTMS AS A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES THE LESSER
ANTILLES.  MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS N OF OF THE RIDGE AXIS
TO 25N WITH SOME SAHARAN DUST MIXED IN E OF 50W.

$$
FORMOSA


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