[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT43 KNHC 032056
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN JUL 03 2005

THE HURRICANE HUNTERS WERE ABLE TO CLOSE OFF A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALSO INDICATE A CLOSED
CIRCULATION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.  ALTHOUGH THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS
WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY IN COMPARISON TO EARLIER TODAY...THERE IS
ENOUGH ORGANIZATION TO WARRANT UPGRADING THE SYSTEM TO TROPICAL
DEPRESSION STATUS AT THIS TIME.  GIVEN THE DECREASE IN CONVECTION
AND THE EXPECTATION OF THE CYCLONE MOVING INLAND OVER YUCATAN
TONIGHT...SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS NOT LIKELY UNTIL THE CENTER
REACHES THE GULF OF MEXICO LATER ON MONDAY.  INTERESTINGLY...GLOBAL
MODELS FORECAST LITTLE OR NO DEVELOPMENT OF THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND THE GFDL MODEL WEAKENS IT OVER THE
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO.  NOTWITHSTANDING...THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
OVER THE GULF ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...WITH
THE SHIPS/GFS GUIDANCE INDICATING VERY WEAK SHEAR FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS CONSERVATIVE AND IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH SHIPS.

INITIAL MOTION IS NEAR 285/7.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD PUSH THE
DEPRESSION WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY AND THEN A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE RIGHT...INTO A WEAKNESS OVER THE WESTERN GULF...IS
FORECAST.  THIS IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL TRACK.

FORECASTER PASCH


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      03/2100Z 18.4N  87.1W    30 KT
 12HR VT     04/0600Z 19.0N  88.1W    30 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     04/1800Z 20.2N  89.9W    30 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     05/0600Z 21.9N  91.4W    35 KT
 48HR VT     05/1800Z 23.7N  92.9W    40 KT
 72HR VT     06/1800Z 27.0N  95.0W    50 KT
 96HR VT     07/1800Z 30.5N  95.0W    40 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     08/1800Z 33.0N  94.5W    25 KT...INLAND


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