[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011056
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI JUL 01 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W S OF 16N MOVING
W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS RATHER SHALLOW UNDERNEATH STRONG
EASTERLIES IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS. OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS THE
WAVE HAS PRODUCED AN INCREASE IN SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
120 NM W OF THE WAVE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE ITCZ. SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 9N-11N WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE WAVE IS ENHANCED
BY A RATHER FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW.

LARGE AMPLITUDE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM
22N39W THROUGH 15N42W TO 6N43W MOVING W ABOUT 15 KT. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE SFC/LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CONTINUES DISPLACED WELL W OF THE MID-LEVEL VORT MAX. SCATTERED
SMALL CLUSTERS OF MOSTLY MODERATE CONVECTION WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
ISOLATED STRONG ARE NOTED E OF THE WAVE EXTENDING FROM THE ITCZ
AXIS NWD TO 14N BETWEEN 36W AND THE WAVE. ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 60 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 14.5N43W.
THE ITCZ IS PINCHED NWD IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE...AND A
LARGE AREA OF DRY STABLE AIR LIES TO THE W OF THE WAVE ALL THE
WAY TO THE LESSER ANTILLES. ASSOCIATED DRY AIR AT THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS WILL BRING RATHER QUIET WEATHER TO THE WINDWARD AND
LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE SHOWERS/TSTMS BEGIN
TO INCREASE SUN NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE WAVE. THIS WAVE
HAS A GOOD TRACK HISTORY...AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
EXTREME EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA MON ACCOMPANIED WITH A NOTICEABLE
WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE ISLANDS.

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE COLOMBIAN COAST
NEAR 10N76W NNE ALONG 15N75W TO THE NW HAITI/MONA PASSAGE AREA.
THE IS MOVING W 15-20 KT. THE WAVE IS ENTERING A HIGHLY
DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT NEAR AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
CENTERED JUST SE OF JAMAICA. SCATTERED STRONG TSTM CLUSTERS ARE
OCCURRING OVER THE CNTRL CARIBBEAN WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE WAVE
S OF 16N. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS PRESENT BETWEEN JAMAICA
AND HAITI. WELL-DEFINED MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION MOVING W
15 KT IS EVIDENT W OF THE WAVE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR
12N81W. THIS CIRCULATION CENTER HAS ACQUIRED SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT WITH CONVECTION
NOTED S OF 14N BETWEEN 78W-82W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE S OF 16N W OF 81W. DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE MOVING W AND
SHOULD AFFECT MANY PARTS OF THE W CARIBBEAN WITH SCATTERED
TSTMS/HEAVY RAINFALL THRU TUE.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 15N10W 11N25W 10N35W 6N57W 12N75W
9N84W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
AXIS BETWEEN 50W-52W. ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF THE
ITCZ TO 4N. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS S OF THE ITCZ S OF 3N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 45W-49W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN
90 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 32W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED ALONG 25N DOMINATES
THE GULF OF MEXICO. DEEP MOISTURE IS CONFINED TO THE EXTREME
EASTERN GULF E OF 85W AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
WHERE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE NOTED. THIS
ACTIVITY IS MUCH REDUCED IN INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE FROM
WHAT WAS NOTED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. SUBSIDENCE AND
ASSOCIATED DRY AIR ALOFT IS INHIBITING CONVECTION FOR THE MOST
PART ACROSS THE GULF. A CUT-OFF MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING S
20 KT IS CENTERED NEAR 26.5N90W AND IS ENTRAINING THE SUBSIDENCE
AREA SWD INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF. EASTERLY UPPER LEVEL
FLOW IS EVIDENT OVER THE SE GULF AND BAY OF CAMPECHE.

CARIBBEAN...
THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION OCCURRING OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS TIED
INTO THE TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM NW VENEZUELA TO
HAITI...AND IS DESCRIBED ABOVE UNDER TROPICAL WAVES. THE ITCZ
HAS LIFTED N OF PANAMA INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN AND HAS PROVIDED A
GOOD FOCUS FOR LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF
TSTMS. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE EXTENDING FROM NW
VENEZUELA TO HAITI AND THAT RELATED TO THE ITCZ IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST OVER THE AREA WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND POSSIBLE FLOODING OVER PARTS OF NW COLOMBIA THROUGH
SAT...AND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA THRU MON. THE REST OF THE
CARIBBEAN WILL EXPERIENCE RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER AHEAD OF THE
NEXT TRPCL WAVE WHICH IS SCHEDULED TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE LESSER
ANTILLES SUN NIGHT.

ATLANTIC...
AN AMPLIFIED AND STRONGLY TILTED UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
CNTRL FLORIDA NEWD BEYOND THE AREA NEAR 32N66W WITH HIGH
CLOUDINESS EXTENDING OVER MUCH OF THE W ATLC WATERS N OF 25N.
A SHARP UPPER TROF IS LOCATED DOWNSTREAM FROM 32N54W THROUGH
25N57W TO 23N60W. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N52W
SW ALONG 24N56W 19N66W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH FROM 21N-22N. THE REMAINDER OF
THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY WLY FLOW N OF 22N E OF 48W...AND N OF
19N BETWEEN 48W-70W. AN UPPER LOW JUST N OF THE AREA NEAR 33N27W
IS SLOWLY MOVING NE AS A SHEARED UPPER TROF EXTENDS FROM THE
CANARY ISLANDS SW TO 14N52W. THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING OUT OF
AFRICA IS ALONG 15N AND STRETCHES WESTWARD TO 37W...WHICH IS
HELPING TO ADVECT SOME UPPER MOISTURE FARTHER N INTO THE ATLC.
MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY FLOW IS INDICATED S OF THE RIDGE
AXIS.

$$
AGUIRRE




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