[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 010551
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI JUL 01 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21W S OF 16N MOVING
W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS RATHER SHALLOW UNDERNEATH STRONG
EASTERLIES IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS. ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 60-75 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 9N-11N.

CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 22N38W THROUGH 15N41W
TO 6N42W MOVING W ABOUT 15 KT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS
THAT THE SFC/LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CONTINUES DISPLACED WELL
W OF THE MID-LEVEL VORT MAX. SCATTERED SMALL CLUSTERS OF MOSTLY
MODERATE CONVECTION WITH A FEW EMBEDDED STRONG ARE NOTED E OF
THE WAVE FROM THE ITCZ AXIS NWD TO 14N BETWEEN 36W AND THE WAVE.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS WITHIN 60 NM
OF 13N42W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO BE INFLECTED ALONG A SW/NE LINE
ACROSS THE WAVE AXIS...AND A LARGE AREA OF DRY STABLE AIR LIES
TO THE W OF THE WAVE ALL THE WAY TO THE LESSER ANTILLES.
ASSOCIATED DRY AIR AT THE MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL BRING RATHER
QUIET WEATHER TO THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BEFORE SHOWERS/TSTMS BEGIN TO INCREASE SUN NIGHT WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE WAVE. LATEST MODEL RUNS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS
IN PREVIOUS DAYS IN DEVELOPING A STRONG LOW ALONG THE WAVE...
INSTEAD IT APPEARS THAT A AMPLIFIED WAVE WILL CROSS THE ISLANDS
ON MON.

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM NW VENEZUELA ALONG
15N73W TO HAITI...AND CONTINUES NE TO NEAR 21N70W. THE WAVE IS
MOVING W 15-20 KT. THE WAVE IS ENTERING A HIGHLY DIFFLUENT UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT NEAR AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED JUST SE OF
JAMAICA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTM CLUSTERS ARE OCCURRING OVER
THE CNTRL CARIBBEAN WITHIN 150 NM W AND 90 NM E OF THE WAVE
AXIS. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING GREATLY SUSTAINED BY THE DIFFLUENT
UPPER FLOW. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXISTS BETWEEN
JAMAICA AND HAITI...AND ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA.
WELL-DEFINED MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION MOVING W 15 KT IS
EVIDENT W OF THE WAVE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N81W. THIS
CIRCULATION CENTER EARLIER SPUN-OFF FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN WITHIN 165 NM SE OF THE CIRCULATION.
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE
MOVING W AND SHOULD AFFECT MANY PARTS OF THE W CARIBBEAN WITH
SCATTERED TSTMS/HEAVY RAINFALL THRU LATE MON.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 15N10W 11N24W 12N34W 6N57W 12N75W
9N84W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION THAT MOVED OFF THE COAST
OF AFRICA DURING THE PAST 4-5 HOURS IS PRESENT FROM 10N-13N
BETWEEN 17W-19W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 22W-29W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF 8N51W. ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS S OF THE ITCZ S OF 3N TO THE EQUATOR...AND WITHIN
30 NM OF 8N38W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 300 NM S AND WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 30W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

MEXICO...
THE REMNANT MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF T.D. BRET CONTINUES TO MOVE
NW OVER THE MEXICAN PLATEAU...AND IS LOCATED BETWEEN TORREON AND
MONTERREY. IT IS UNDER A MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
LOCATED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 25N104W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 21N-24N W OF 101W TO THE PACIFIC
COAST OF MEXICO.

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED ALONG 25N DOMINATES
THE GULF OF MEXICO. DEEP MOISTURE IS CONFINED TO THE EXTREME
EASTERN GULF E OF 85W AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
WHERE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE NOTED. THIS
ACTIVITY IS MUCH REDUCED IN INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE FROM
WHAT WAS NOTED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. SUBSIDENCE AND
ASSOCIATED DRY AIR ALOFT IS INHIBITING CONVECTION FOR THE MOST
PART ACROSS THE GULF. A CUT-OFF MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING S
20 KT IS CENTERED NEAR 26.5N90W AND IS ENTRAINING THE SUBSIDENCE
AREA SWD INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF. EASTERLY UPPER LEVEL
FLOW IS EVIDENT OVER THE SE GULF AND BAY OF CAMPECHE.

CARIBBEAN...
THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION OCCURRING OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS TIED
INTO THE TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM NW VENEZUELA TO
HAITI...AND IS DESCRIBED ABOVE UNDER TROPICAL WAVES. THE ITCZ
HAS LIFTED N OF PANAMA INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN AND HAS PROVIDED A
GOOD FOCUS FOR LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF
TSTMS. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE EXTENDING FROM NW
VENEZUELA TO HAITI AND THAT RELATED TO THE ITCZ IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST OVER THE AREA WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND POSSIBLE FLOODING OVER PARTS OF NW COLOMBIA THROUGH
SAT...AND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA THRU MON. THE REST OF THE
CARIBBEAN WILL EXPERIENCE RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER AHEAD OF THE
NEXT TRPCL WAVE WHICH IS SCHEDULED TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE LESSER
ANTILLES SUN NIGHT.

ATLANTIC...
AN AMPLIFIED AND STRONGLY TILTED UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
CNTRL FLORIDA NEWD BEYOND THE AREA NEAR 32N66W WITH HIGH
CLOUDINESS EXTENDING OVER MUCH OF THE W ATLC WATERS N OF 25N.
A SHARP UPPER TROF IS LOCATED DOWNSTREAM FROM 32N54W THROUGH
25N57W TO 23N60W. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK 1018 MB LOW IS NEAR
29N59W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING NE TO 32N57W AND SW TO 28N55W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE IS NOTED FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 51W-55W. IN ADDITION...A
SFC TROF WHICH BROKE OFF FROM THE CNTRL CARIBBEAN TRPCL WAVE
STRETCHES NE OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ALONG 19N65W TO 23N58.5W AND
HAS TRIGGERED SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM OF THE
TROUGH E OF 61W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY WLY
FLOW N OF 22N E OF 48W...AND N OF 19N BETWEEN 48W-70W. AN UPPER
LOW JUST N OF THE AREA NEAR 33N27W IS SLOWLY MOVING NE AS A
SHEARED UPPER TROF EXTENDS FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS SW TO 14N52W.
THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING OUT OF AFRICA IS ALONG 15N AND
STRETCHES WESTWARD TO 37W...WHICH IS HELPING TO ADVECT SOME
UPPER MOISTURE FARTHER N INTO THE ATLC. MODERATE TO STRONG
EASTERLY FLOW IS INDICATED S OF THE RIDGE AXIS.

$$
AGUIRRE



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