[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 010511
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE 01 MAR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 2N18W 1N31W ACROSS THE EQUATOR
NEAR 39W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 45W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90/120
NM OF THE AXIS FROM 12W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO AND WEST ATLANTIC...
POWERFUL NOR'EASTER CONTINUES MOVE NE AND IS NOW OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE
AREA NEAR 32N69W SW ACROSS THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS AND THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA TO OVER W CUBA NEAR 23N82W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150/200 NM ALONG THE FRONT NE
OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS WITH OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT TO OVER W CUBA. A
COUPLE OF OTHER WEAK DISTURBANCES ARE MOVING ACROSS THE GULF
BEHIND THE FRONT...THE FIRST BEING A SURFACE TROUGH WHICH
EXTENDS FROM THE E COAST FLORIDA S OF DAYTONA BEACH ACROSS THE
PENINSULA NEAR FORT MYERS ON THE W COAST TO N OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR 23N87W WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY.
SECOND DISTURBANCE IS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH
GEORGIA ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE OVER APALACHEE BAY ALONG
29N85W THE W TO 28N89W. THE TROUGH IS USHERING IN COOLER AIR AND
LOWER DEW POINTS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG 90W PROVIDING THE
UPPER SUPPORT FOR STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE
GULF N OF 24N E OF 95W. A SUBTROPICAL JET WITH WINDS OF 110 TO
130 KT IS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF. UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC WITH THE AXIS FROM ACROSS PUERTO RICO TO
TO BEYOND 32N60W.

CARIBBEAN...
RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER OVER THE CARIBBEAN CONTINUES EXCEPT IN
THE FAR NW WHERE THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM OVER W ATLC ACROSS
W CUBA NEAR 23N82W OVER THE ISLE OF YOUTH TO THE GULF OF
HONDURAS NEAR 18N86W WHERE IT DISSIPATES OFF THE COAST OF S
BELIZE. OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90/120 NM OF THE FRONT N OF 18N. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
GENERALLY COVERS THE AREA WITH BROAD AXIS FROM AN UPPER HIGH
LOCATED ALONG THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 11N66W N ACROSS PUERTO
RICO INTO THE CENTRAL/WESTERN ATLC AND CONTINUATION OF VERY DRY
AIR ALOFT. A WEAK LOW-LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS OVER THE LESSER
ANTILLES AND PRODUCING BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
WITHIN 90/120 NM OF THE ISLANDS.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC...
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 32N33W SW TO 25N44W
THEN DISSIPATING TO 25N55W. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION AS
UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT HAS LEFT THE FRONT WITH THE BROAD UPPER
TROUGH E OF THE FRONT EXTENDING ALONG 32N30W 10N40W. OVERCAST
LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE
FRONT. TYPICAL NE FLOW ALONG NW AFRICA HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH
NNW FLOW AS SURFACE RIDGING IS WEAK. THE TROPICS ARE DOMINATED
BY STRONG WESTERLY FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS WITH A LARGE AREA OF
DRY AIR ALOFT EXTENDING S OF 20N THUS ITCZ CONVECTION IS LIMITED
WITH A LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT.

$$
WALLACE


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