[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 252345
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI 25 FEB 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 2S30W 3S40W 1S50W.
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION OVER SRN PORTIONS OF THE
IVORY COAST AND GHANA ARE MOVING INLAND WITH THE SEA BREEZE.
FARTHER S...A LARGE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS RACING WWD S
OF 3N BETWEEN 3W-7W ALONG THE EQUATOR. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
IS S OF THE AXIS W OF 19W...EXTENDING ALMOST ENTIRELY S OF THE
EQUATOR. A LINE OF CONVERGENCE N OF THE AMAZON DELTA IS
PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 40W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO AND WEST ATLANTIC...
WEAK LOW PRES HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE E GULF WATERS ALONG AN
ELONGATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC WWD TO
MEXICO. TWO LOW CENTERS...BOTH 1012 MB...ARE CENTERED NEAR
28N83W (JUST W OF TAMPA BAY) AND 25N86W WITH A WARM FRONT
PENETRATING EWD OVER FL TO CAPE CANAVERAL WHICH THEN CONNECTS TO
A COLD FRONT OVER THE W ATLC ALONG 29N76W 32N68W. THIS PART OF
THE FRONT IS INTERACTING WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER
THE E GULF TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED WEAK/MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 22N-29N BETWEEN 80W-86W. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS EXTENDS NW OF THE FRONT OVER
THE W ATLC WATERS TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. TO THE W...A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS SW OF THE LOW CENTERS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO
NEAR VERACRUZ MEXICO...AND THEN LIES ALONG THE SLOPES OF THE
SIERRA MADRES INTO NRN MEXICO. THE SW PART OF THE GULF IS
RELATIVELY CLEAR CONSIDERING THE NEARBY FRONT...AND THE BULK OF
THE CLOUDS ARE LOCATED OVER THE N GULF WATERS IN THE AREA OF
GREATEST LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY...AS WELL AS BANKED UP AGAINST
THE SIERRA MADRES. WEATHER ACROSS FL AND THE GULF WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED THRU THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HANGS AROUND
AND A SECOND WAVE OF LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE W GULF ON
SUN...POTENTIALLY BECOMING A STRONG COASTAL STORM FARTHER UP THE
COAST ON MON/TUE.

CARIBBEAN...
VERY QUIET WEATHER SPANS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT TRADES AFFECTING THE ISLANDS AND OFFSHORE WATERS. A BROAD
LOW-LEVEL TROF APPEARS TO BE MOVING W OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN...JUST PAST PUERTO RICO...WITH SE FLOW STREAMING FROM
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS/PUERTO RICO. A BAND
OF LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS IS STREAMING RIGHT UP THE LEEWARD ISLAND
PART OF THE CHAIN THEN WRAPS W TO HISPANIOLA AND HAS BEEN
DROPPING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. OTHER THAN THAT...A
SHARP UPPER TROF OFF THE COAST OF CNTRL AMERICA IS PRODUCING
STRONG SUBSIDENCE TO THE E AND IS MAKING THE ENTIRE AREA
NON-CONDUCIVE FOR DEEP CONVECTION.

REMAINDER OF ATLANTIC...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED ALONG 60W/61W AND CONFLUENT FLOW
DOWNSTREAM OF ITS AXIS IS MAINTAINING A 1022 MB SFC HIGH NEAR
28N53W WITH GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AHEAD OF THE W ATLC FRONT.
FARTHER E...A LARGE AND COMPLEX DEEP-LAYERED LOW PRES SYSTEM IS
ROTATING NEAR THE AZORES (N OF THE AREA) WITH ONE OF THE
TRAILING COLD FRONTS ENTERING THE AREA ALONG 32N26W 29N30W
24N45W. A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE KICKING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROF IS INITIATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...N OF 29N BETWEEN 22W-30W. STRONG UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW
EXTENDS ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE REGION WITH A NARROW BAND OF
STRONG SUBSIDENCE APPROACHING THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FROM THE N.
THE ZONAL FLOW HAS PUSHED THE AREA OF STRONGEST UPPER DIVERGENCE
WELL TO THE S...WHICH HAS CAUSED THE MOST SIGNIFICANT ITCZ
CONVECTION TO BE LOCATED S OF THE EQUATOR.

$$
BERG


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