[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250531
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI 25 FEB 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0415 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 2N16W ALONG THE EQUATOR FROM
27W-40W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 47W. NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N E OF 2W TO ACROSS THE PRIME
MERIDIAN. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 6W-30W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF 4N FROM
38W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE GULF FROM A 1009 MB LOW OVER NE FLORIDA
ACROSS APALACHEE BAY TO A 1010 MB LOW SE OF LOUISIANA NEAR
28N89W CONTINUING SW TO INLAND OVER MEXICO NEAR 25N98W AND
CONTINUING AS A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE BASE OF THE SIERRA
MADRE MOUNTAINS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS OVER THE NE GULF WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 24N91W TO INLAND
OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N86W. ELSEWHERE OVER THE
GULF...MAINLY FAIR WEATHER WITH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS STREAKING
ACROSS THE AREA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...LONGWAVE MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NE TEXAS TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AN
EMBEDDED MID/UPPER LOW IS MOVING ACROSS LOUISIANA NEAR 31N92W
ENHANCING THE FRONTAL ACTIVITY. THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FRONT/LOW ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE E ACROSS THE
NE GULF DURING THE NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN...
MODERATE TRADES CONTINUE OVER THE AREA. SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 66W
IS GENERATING SCATTERED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS MOVING WITH THE TRADES
ESPECIALLY OVER THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO FROM
15N-21N BETWEEN 58W-70W. ANOTHER AREA OF MOISTURE WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS IS S OF 13N FROM TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO TO JUST E OF THE
ABC ISLANDS. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE OVER MOST OF COSTA RICA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...BROAD/FLAT
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH WESTERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER THE AREA
AND DRY/TRANQUIL PATTERN ALOFT CONTINUES TO LIMIT THE VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION.

ATLANTIC...
SURFACE RIDGE HAS BREACHED THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE CENTRAL
ATLC WITH A 1023 MB HIGH IN THE W ATLC NEAR 30N61W TO A 1022 MB
HIGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 22N40W CONTINUING E TO NW OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 21N18W. THE
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 32N34W TO 25N53W AND A
SECOND PUSH IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT IS ALONG 33N JUST MOVING
SE INTO THE REGION. WHILE LACKING SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS
WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 28N FROM 26W-35W. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE W HALF
OF THE ATLC W OF 40W PRODUCING ALMOST ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE AREA. THE E ATLANTIC HAS A MID/UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGH N OF
18N E OF 40W WITH AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS ALONG 32W...
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC...AND A
DEEP LAYERED LOW ALONG THE COAST OF MOROCCO NEAR 32N10W. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 33N11W. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ROTATING AROUND THE DEEP LAYERED LOW N OF 29N
E OF 14W. FARTHER S...STRONG ZONAL FLOW EXTENDS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING ALONG THE
EQUATOR.

$$
WALLACE



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