[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221748
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE 22 FEB 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N1W 2N30W 3N50W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS E
OF 30W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM EQUATOR TO 5N
BETWEEN 33W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
S PORTIONS OF MEXICO WITH A LARGE TROUGH ALONG THE W COAST OF
THE UNITED STATES INTO NW MEXICO.  THE SUBTROPICAL JET CUTS
ACROSS MEXICO N OF 20N WITH ASSOCIATED PACIFIC MOISTURE AND HIGH
CLOUDINESS EXTENDING INTO THE W GLFMEX.  AT THE SURFACE...
HIGH PRES RIDGE PREVAILS WITH AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS S FLORIDA
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. SE TO S SURFACE FLOW DOMINATES THE AREA
TO 27N/28N WHERE A WEAK TROUGH IS PRODUCING LIGHT NLY FLOW OVER
THE N GULF.  SEA FOG IS NOTED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY POLEWARD OF
THE TROUGH WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY ITSELF.  LOOKING UPSTREAM...A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE
S UNITED STATES WILL MAKE LITTLE SWD PROGRESS UNTIL LATE WED
WHEN A FRONTAL WAVE FORMS AND DRAGS THE FRONT INTO THE NW GULF
EARLY THU. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WED NIGHT INTO THU THEN GRADUALLY MOVE EWD INTO THE E
GULF BY LATE WEEK.

CARIBBEAN...
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE CARIBBEAN
WITH UPSTREAM MOISTURE RIDING UP AND OVER THE RIDGE AND N OF THE
AREA.  AS A RESULT...SUBSIDENCE AND DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT
CONTINUE TO LIMIT VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUDS/PRECIP.  AT THE
SURFACE...A LOW LEVEL TROUGH...REMNANTS OF AN ATLC FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN IS PRODUCING A BAND OF
BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 12N-16N
BETWEEN 61W-72W.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD ADVANCE WESTWARD WITH THE
LOW LEVEL EASTERLY TRADES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ELSEWHERE...NE TRADES CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND ALONG THE WINDWARD FACING SLOPES OF W
PANAMA/COSTA RICA/NICARAGUA.

ATLANTIC...
ZONAL WLY FLOW DOMINATES THE W HALF OF THE ATLC WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.  AT THE SURFACE...A 1025 MB HIGH
APPROXIMATELY 300 NM SE OF BERMUDA NEAR 29N63W EXTENDS A RIDGE
WESTWARD OVER THE N BAHAMAS AND S FLORIDA.  A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT WELL N OF THE AREA IS TIGHTENING UP THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT PRODUCING MODERATE SW FLOW N OF THE RIDGE
AXIS.  OVER THE CENTRAL TO E ATLC...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG 30W
IS PRODUCING CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 300 NM E OF A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 31N25W TO
20N34W.  THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER SHOULD PROGRESS EWD
REACHING THE CANARY ISLANDS WED. ELSEWHERE...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.  OVER THE TROPICAL
ATLC...ITCZ CONVECTION IS MOST ACTIVE E OF 30W AND BETWEEN
35W-45W.  VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES NOT INDICATE THE HIGH
CONCENTRATIONS OF AFRICAN DUST THAT WAS EVIDENT LAST WEEK.
HOWEVER...THE ABSENCE OF CLOUDINESS IMPLIES DRY/STABLE
CONDITIONS PREVAIL S OF 15N TO THE ITCZ E OF 40W.

$$
RHOME


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