[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 210533
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON 21 FEB 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N9W 3N14W 2N22W 3N33W EQ47W.
CLUSTERS SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM
OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN TO 6W WITH SCATTERED/
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION APPROACHING THE PRIME MERIDIAN.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE S
OF 7N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 7W-20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE W ATLANTIC...
BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE W ATLC AND GULF OF
MEXICO WITH A 1027 MB HIGH LOCATED IN THE W ATLC NEAR 32N70W.
BROAD SE/S RETURN FLOW DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO PRODUCING
WARM TEMPERATURES. BROKEN/OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS COVER THE NW GULF N OF 25N W OF 92W. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...BROAD RIDGE ALONG 80W WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
COVERING THE AREA. BAND OF PACIFIC MOISTURE WITH A 110-130 KT
EMBEDDED JETSTREAM IS OVER THE NW GULF EXTENDING FROM S TEXAS TO
THE W PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE SW GULF HAS STRONG
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO S FLORIDA. THE PATTERN
WILL CHANGE LITTLE THRU WED AS AN E/W ORIENTED RIDGE SETS UP
FROM S FLORIDA TO S TEXAS BUT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE
TEXAS COAST WED NIGHT AND STALL OVER THE N GULF WATERS.

CARIBBEAN...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE FROM OVER THE W ATLC CONTINUES TO BUILD S
INCREASING THE TRADES OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH GALE CONDITIONS
BEING OBSERVED OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH AXIS EXTENDING
ACROSS TRINIDAD TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. MODERATE/STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA AND THUS LIMITING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION TO LOW LEVEL SHOWER ACTIVITY.
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO
17N66W. PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 15N E OF 74W. AREA OF BROKEN/OVERCAST
LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING W WITH
THE TRADES FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TO THE ABC ISLANDS ALONG
THE COAST OF VENEZUELAN AND COLOMBIA TO INLAND OVER W PANAMA AND
COSTA RICA.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC...
DEVELOPING COLD FRONT IS ENTERING THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 32N51W
EXTENDING W TO 31N62W. DISSIPATING COLD FRONT FURTHER E IN THE
CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS THROUGH 32N38W SW ALONG 23N46W TO THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N62W. PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
30N37W SSW ALONG 22N40W TO 13N45W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS E OF THE DISSIPATING FRONT WITHIN 175 NM OF LINE FROM 26N32W
TO BEYOND 32N35W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS ARE N OF THIS FRONT TO THE BAHAMAS AND 80W. AT THE UPPER
LEVELS...SHORTWAVE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC
N OF 25N FROM 35W-48W WITH A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR
33N41W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC IS DOMINATED BY BROAD
RIDGE FROM AN MID/UPPER HIGH OFF THE COAST OF BRAZIL THAT
EXTENDS NW OVER THE THE CARIBBEAN AND W ATLC WITH ALMOST ZONAL
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. IN THE E ATLC...MID/UPPER LOW IS 700 NM NW
OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 32N28W WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING
SE ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR THE
BORDER OF MOROCCO AND THE WESTERN SAHARA. AT THE SURFACE...A
RIDGE EXTENDS THROUGH 32N22W S TO 20N20W.

$$
WALLACE


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