[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 200658
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN 20 FEB 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 7N9W 1N26W 4S43W 4S50W.  WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF AXIS FROM
15W-21W HENCE WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO 30W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS W OF 38W INLAND NE BRAZIL COAST.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
VERY BROAD...QUASI-ZONAL...ANTICYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS
N HALF OF BASIN WITH SLIGHT TROUGHINESS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF SRN HALF.  TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTED BY 110 KT JETSTREAM
OVER MEXICO REMAIN N OF 25N W OF 90W WHILE REST OF GULF REMAINS
UNDER MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER SUBSIDENCE WHICH MAINTAINS VERY
DRY CONDITIONS.  LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED NEXT 24 HRS AS ZONAL
FLOW CONTINUES.  AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES CENTER 1030 MB NE
OF GULF MAINTAIN E TO SE FLOW WHICH IS BOUND TO DECREASE WITHIN
NEXT 24 HRS AS RIDGE CENTER WEAKENS AND MOVES E.  POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION WOULD BE A TEMPORARY INCREASE IN RETURN FLOW OVER
EXTREME WRN GULF ABETTED BY FORMATION OF LOW PRES CENTER OVER
CENTRAL MEXICO.

CARIBBEAN...
STRONG HIGH PRES OVER SW N ATLC MAINTAINS TIGHT GRADIENT OVER
BASIN WITH STRONGER E TRADES...APPROACHING 30 KT...ALONG
COLOMBIAN COAST.  MODERATE SUBSIDENCE...NOT AS STRONG AS ONE
OVER GULF OF MEXICO...OVER WRN CARIBBEAN AS CONFLUENT FLOW
MERGES ACROSS ENTIRE BASIN.  GENERALLY DRY AIR OVER BASIN
MAINTAIN SUNNY TROPICAL CONDITIONS.  WIND EXPECTED TO ABATE
AFTER 48 HRS AS HIGH PRES OVER ATLC MOVES E.

ATLANTIC...
LARGE AMPLITUDE NEGATIVE-TILT UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH
SHIFTING NE OVER SW N ATLC WATERS WITH WEAKENING 110 KT JET
CORE.  IN ADDITION TO DECREASING INTENSITY TROUGH NE MOVE
SHOULD KEEP EFFECTS N OF AREA.  ATTENDANT COLD FRONT OVER
CENTRAL ATLC FROM 31N50W TO 25N65W DISCONNECT FROM ENERGY SOURCE
AND SHOULD LOSE IDENTITY QUITE RAPIDLY.  SIMILARLY...SURFACE LOW
PRES AT 28N43W AND ATTENDANT TROUGH EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN
NEXT 24 HRS.  DRY CONDITIONS REPLACE COLD FRONT AND TROUGH BUT
WIND AND SEAS REMAIN IMPACTED BY BROAD RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL ATLC.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER E ATLC AND NW AFRICA MAINTAIN DRY
CONDITIONS WITHIN 240 NM OF AXIS FROM 33N31W THROUGH 35N AND
PRIME MERIDIAN AND BEYOND.  ITCZ CONVECTION REMAIN CENTERED JUST
N OF EQUATOR OVER E ATLC AND NEAR BRAZILIAN COAST. .

$$
WALLY BARNES


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