[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181155
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI 18 FEB 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 3N16W 1N28W THEN ALONG THE
EQUATOR TO 40W THEN INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS
FROM 16W-31W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE S OF 7N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA FROM
40W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLANTIC...
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...BROAD RIDGING DOMINATES THE GULF AND W
ATLC W OF 60W WITH THE AXIS ALONG 75W AND UPSTREAM PACIFIC
MOISTURE RIDING UP AND OVER THE RIDGE ACROSS THE S UNITED
STATES. AS A RESULT...STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT
PREVAILS THUS LIMITING ANY SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS/CONVECTION
OVER THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER THE SE
UNITED STATES INTO THE N GULF WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO
THE W ATLC JUST W OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N66W ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA OVER LAKE OKEECHOBEE THEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF TO
INLAND OVER NE MEXICO NEAR 24N98W WITH A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. THE
FRONT IS PRIMARILY DRY AND IS ONLY PRODUCING BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW
CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 175 NM S OF THE
FRONT IN THE GULF E OF 90W AND N OF 29N FROM 64W-74W. WEAK MID
LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 21N94W PRODUCING
BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 24N
FROM 93W-97W. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS COVER THE NW GULF FROM 25N-29N W
OF 90W TO INLAND OVER TEXAS.

CARIBBEAN...
SHARP MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE FROM COLOMBIA TO
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA RESULTING IN ZONAL FLOW OVER THE
CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN LIMITING SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER TO LOW LEVELS. SCATTERED/BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N OF 14N E OF 76W TO OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. NE FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS IS PRODUCING OVERCAST LOW
CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER PORTIONS OF W PANAMA
ACROSS COSTA RICA TO OVER NICARAGUA EXTENDING OUTWARD TO WITHIN
60 NM OF THE COAST.

CENTRAL AND E ATLANTIC...
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WATERS FEATURES A FLAT MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WITH NEAR ZONAL FLOW. SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLC ALONG 48W IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS FROM
20N-33W BETWEEN 34W-48W. AT THE SURFACE...SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 31N45W TO A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 23N51W TO A 1011 MB
LOW E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N58W. THIS IS PRODUCING
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-31N BETWEEN 36W-46W.
OVER THE E ATLC...MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO NUDGE SW
INTO THE AREA N OF 24N E OF 25W. FURTHER S...VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY STILL INDICATES AN AREA OF AFRICAN DUST S OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS E OF 27W.

$$
WALLACE



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