[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171724
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU 17 FEB 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N12W 1N30W 2S45W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 90 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 19W AND 29W...WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS OF 1.5N33.5W...AND WITHIN A 90 NM RADIUS OF 1.5N41W.

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 65W...
STRONG WESTERLY JET IS LOCATED JUST N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AND
CUTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES WITH ITS AXIS EXTENDING
THROUGH 33N100W TO 33N88W TO 33N70W. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS
ALONG THE JET ARE IN THE 110-125 KT RANGE. BROAD RIDGING ALOFT
COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA W OF 65W. AT THE
SURFACE A COLD FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N76W TO NEAR TALLAHASSEE
FLORIDA TO 28.5N91W TO THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AND THEN CONTINUES
AS A STATIONARY FRONT INTO W TEXAS NEAR 31N104. BROKEN/OVERCAST
LOW CLOUDS ARE LOCATED ALONG AND UP TO 240 NM N OF THE COLD
FRONT.

W CENTRAL AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS ITS AXIS ALONG 59W FROM ABOUT 12N
TO BEYOND 32N WITH CYCLONIC FLOW LOCATED BETWEEN 50W AND 65W. A
SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGH NEAR
28.5N58W...MOVING E ABOUT 20 KT. AT THE SURFACE A 1011 MB LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 19.5N56W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 28N42W INTO
THE LOW AND THEN CONTINUES SOUTHWARD TO 14N61W. THE LOW IS
MARKED BY A SWIRL OF LOW/MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS.

E HALF OF THE ATLANTIC...
BROAD RIDGING ALOFT COVERS MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT FOR A SMALL
ELONGATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 31N19W. THE
CIRCULATION IS NEARLY STATIONARY. A SOUTHWESTERLY JET IS LOCATED
FROM 20N55W TO 32N42W. WINDS ARE 80-100 KT ALONG THE JET AXIS.
OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ARE LOCATED ALONG AND UP TO 300 NM E OF THE
JET. THE JET THEN TURNS ESE THROUGH 29N30W TO THE AFRICAN COAST
NEAR 25N.

$$
CAB


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