[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 152336
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE 15 FEB 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N0 2S15W 4S24W 7S33W 6S43W. WITH
THE ITCZ HAVING SUCH A SRN POSITION...THE BULK OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION IS S OF THE EQUATOR. A SFC TROF EXTENDS NE OF THE
AMAZON DELTA ALONG 1N52W 4N40W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR
32N81W.  SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF OF
MEXICO PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER WITH WARM TEMPERATURES.
THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A WEAKENING FRONTAL TROUGH LIES WITHIN
THE RIDGE AND IS MOVING SLOWLY E OFF THE COAST OF N FLORIDA
ALONG 32N76W 29N80W.  BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
BOUNDARY.  SIMILAR CLOUDS ARE ALSO OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO
FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 82W-88W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...PACIFIC
MOISTURE IS ADVECTING OVER THE SE UNITED STATES N OF 29N.  THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS STRONG SUBSIDENCE HELPING TO PRODUCE
THE FAIR SKIES.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE GULF COAST WED
NIGHT AND WILL STALL FROM THE FL STRAITS TO THE NW GULF BY THU
NIGHT/FRI MORNING...ULTIMATELY BRINGING ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS TO THE AREA ON THU.

CARIBBEAN...
THE TAIL END OF AN ATLANTIC FRONTAL TROUGH IS OVER THE NRN
LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG 20N59W 15N63W.  BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE
WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE TROUGH.  AN AREA OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE S OF HISPANIOLA FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN
69W-78W MOVING W IN THE TRADES.  A SECOND PATCH OF BROKEN LOW
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN TO INCLUDE
THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND HONDURAS FROM 13N-21N BETWEEN 83W-87W.
THE MID/UPPER LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY AND THUS IS PRECLUDING ANY
DEEP CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH AN UPPER RIDGE ALONG CNTRL AMERICA IS
BEGINNING TO BRING A FEW HIGH CLOUDS OVER BELIZE FROM THE
PACIFIC.  MOST OF THE SHOWERS OVER OPEN WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE TO THE W...AFFECTING PARTS OF CNTRL AMERICA THRU FRI.

WEST/CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST WITH THE
TAIL END LAGGING AS A FRONTAL TROUGH FROM 32N76W TO 29N80W.
FARTHER E...A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IS LOCATED N OF THE AREA NEAR
38N45W AND IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES
ACROSS THE AREA WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING EWD ALONG 40W. THIS
SHORTWAVE IS HELPING TO PUSH A COLD FRONT TO THE E ALONG 32N38W
27N43W.  THE FRONT CONTINUES QUASI-STATIONARY FARTHER SW TO
25N50W 20N59W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS EXTEND UP TO 200 NM BEHIND THE
FRONT E OF 60W WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FORMING ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE FRONT N OF 25N.  COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS IS
PLUNGING SWD BEHIND THE FRONT...MOVING TO 28.5N BETWEEN 43W-63W.
THE TROPICS ARE LARGELY UNDER A FAIR-WEATHER TYPE OF REGIME WITH
WEAK EASTERLIES AND PATCHY CLOUDS.  A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
ALONG 1N52W 4N41W PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS.

EAST ATLANTIC...
A DEEP-LAYERED LOW REMAINS CENTERED W OF THE CANARY AND MADEIRA
ISLANDS WITH A 1006 MB SFC REFLECTION CENTERED NEAR 30N24W. THE
FLOW AROUND THE LOW HAS BECOME MOSTLY CIRCULAR AND SO THERE ARE
NO FRONTS TO SUPPORT MUCH PRECIPITATION. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
LOCATED OVER THE N SEMICIRCLE N OF 31N BETWEEN 14W-30W BUT EVEN
THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AS THE LOW WINDS DOWN. A NARROW
SWATH OF DUST/SAND IS STILL BEING WRAPPED INTO THE N/E SIDE OF
THE LOW EXTENDING FROM WESTERN SAHARA NWD ACROSS THE EASTERNMOST
CANARY ISLANDS THEN TO MADEIRA ISLAND. FARTHER S...STRONG N/NELY
FLOW AT THE SFC HAS PUSHED THE ITCZ AND ALL ITS ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION S OF THE EQUATOR ALTHOUGH THE SUBTROPICAL JET IS
ADVECTING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EWD IN A BAND BETWEEN THE
EQUATOR AND 10N.

$$
FORMOSA


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net