[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 131139
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN 13 FEB 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N0 5N10W 1N23W 1N33W 2S52W.
NUMEROUS MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF
THE AXIS BETWEEN 8W-27W. SCATTERED MODERATE S OF 1.5N BETWEEN
47W-52W OVER THE AMAZON DELTA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
1023 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR TAMPA BAY FL AT 06 UTC HAS
SLOWLY MIGRATED EWD ACROSS FL AND IS NOW OVER THE NRN BAHAMAS.
THE HIGH WILL BECOME ABSORBED INTO A RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC
WATERS OVER THE NEXT 18-24 HRS AS A SECOND HIGH MOVES SE OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE HIGH IS PRODUCING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS OVER FL THIS MORNING BUT DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN SINCE
YESTERDAY SO LOW TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT BEEN QUITE AS CHILLY. AN
UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED ALONG 85W INTO THE TN/OH VALLEYS WITH
HIGH CLOUDS GENERALLY N OF 27N...WHICH HAVE ALSO KEPT THE LOW
TEMPS ALONG THE GULF COAST A LITTLE WARMER. SELY RETURN FLOW HAS
DEVELOPED OVER THE W GULF AND THE MOIST MARINE AIR MASS IS
PRODUCING A BAND OF STRATIFORM RAIN WITHIN 100 NM OF THE TX
COAST...ALIGNED WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 100 KT
UPPER JET OVER LOUISIANA. DEEPENING LOW PRES OVER THE CNTRL
PLAINS WILL SPAWN A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE OFF THE TX COAST
SUN EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL PRECEDE THE
BOUNDARY...MOVING FROM THEIR CURRENT POSITION OFF THE COAST EWD
ACROSS THE N GULF WATERS THRU MON EVENING.

CARIBBEAN...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM W VENEZUELA/COLOMBIA NWWD OVER
THE W CARIBBEAN WATERS AND THE ENTIRE AREA IS DOMINATED BY DRY
AIR IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. A DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS PUERTO RICO SW TO 16N72W S OF
HISPANIOLA AND SAN JUAN RADAR INDICATES A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
MOVING FROM NE TO SW ACROSS THE ISLAND. A SFC TROF ALSO EXTENDS
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 11N63W 17N60W 22N58W WITH LOW
CLOUDS/SHOWERS FROM 12N-20N BETWEEN 57W-66W. A FEW TSTM CELLS
ARE LOCATED AT THE N END OF THE TROF OVER THE ATLC WATERS JUST
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

ATLANTIC...
A BROAD LONGWAVE TROF IS MOVING ACROSS THE W ATLC WATERS WITH AN
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ALONG 31N57W 23N56W INCREASING DIFFLUENCE UP
TO 500 NM DOWNSTREAM. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM
32N50W 22N60W TO PUERTO RICO...AND A SECONDARY REINFORCING COLD
FRONT IS QUICKLY CATCHING UP TO IT ALONG 32N52W 25N60W 22N66W.
NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDS UP TO 180 NM E OF THE
SECOND FRONT N OF 24N AND ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE UP TO 150
NM AHEAD OF THE FIRST FRONT BETWEEN 20N-24N. MODERATE COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONTS IS PRODUCING A FEW STRATOCU PATCHES
OVER THE W ATLC BUT THERE HAS BEEN CONSIDERABLE CLEARING SINCE
LAST NIGHT. FARTHER E...A STRONG 1038 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER
THE AZORES WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO 32N38W 21N53W AND STRONG
EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE SUBTROPICAL REGION. AN ELONGATED UPPER
LOW REMAINS CENTERED NW OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 30N21W WITH
THE ASSOCIATED DIGGING TROF EXTENDING SW TO 15N35W. THIS IN TURN
IS AMPLIFYING AN UPPER RIDGE OVER W AFRICA WITH A 150 KT JET
STREAK RIDGING UP THE COAST OF WESTERN SAHARA AT 250 MB. THE JET
IS ADVECTING A LARGE TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE TROPICS
ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO MOROCCO AND THE CANARY ISLANDS
AND TRMM IMAGERY HAS SUGGESTED THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED BENEATH THE CANOPY PRIMARILY OFF THE COAST OF SENEGAL
AND MAURITANIA. A SFC TROF REMAINS ALONG THE AFRICAN COAST N OF
23N AND SFC OBS INDICATE THAT A 1013 MB LOW HAS DEVELOPED NEAR
23N17W...EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARDS THE CANARY ISLANDS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HRS. CURRENTLY THE LARGE DUST/SAND PLUME WHICH MOVED OFF
THE COAST 2 DAYS AGO IS WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW/TROF AND EXTENDS
N OF 16N E OF 23W...WITH ANOTHER PIECE WITHIN 350 NM NE OF LINE
14N26W 25N40W. CONDITIONS HAVE DETERIORATED OVER THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS AS THE LEADING EDGE MOVED THROUGH ABOUT 4-5 HRS
AGO...WITH SAL REPORTING WIDESPREAD DUST AND VISIBILITIES
REDUCED BELOW 1 MILE. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE BEING EXPERIENCED
OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS WITH HAZY SKIES AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES
BETWEEN 2-3 MILES.

$$
BERG



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