[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110527
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI 11 FEB 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 1N27W 1N40W EQ50W. LARGE
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS FROM 8W-34W. BETWEEN 13W-23W. SCATTERED
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO THE
AXIS FROM 34W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER E TEXAS NEAR 32N96W WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE GULF. COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO
PROGRESS S OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS
JUST N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO
21N95W THEN S TO INLAND OVER MEXICO NEAR 18N95W WITH A
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUING NW ALONG E SLOPE OF THE SIERRA MADRE
MOUNTAINS. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE W
GULF S OF 28N W OF 94W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW
PREVAILS WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MEXICO INTO THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES. PACIFIC MOISTURE IS ADVECTED ACROSS
MEXICO INTO THE NW GULF N OF 24N AN EMBEDDED JETSTREAM WITH
WINDS OF 90-110 KT. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE IS S OF 24N. THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD LEAR THE GULF BY MID MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A DECAYING TROUGH LINGERS FROM THE N WINDWARD ISLANDS TO NE
VENEZUELA ALONG 15N60W TO 12N71W. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE S OF 14N FROM 68W-74W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF N VENEZUELA INTO
COLOMBIA WHERE FLOODING IS REPORTED. ELSEWHERE OVERCAST LOW
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE S OF 12N TO INLAND OVER PANAMA
AND COSTA RICA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...BROAD RIDGING REMAINS OVER
THE CARIBBEAN E OF 70W WITH A SMALL MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N82W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN SEA. THE COLD FRONT PRESENTLY OVER THE GULF AND W ATLC
TO ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N70W ACROSS
THE N BAHAMAS TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 25N80W. OVERCAST
LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE
FRONT. BROKEN/OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE W OF THE FRONT
TO 80W WITH GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 29N. A WEAK 1020 MB HIGH IS
OVER THE SUBTROPICAL CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 28N57W PRODUCING FAIR
WEATHER. SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN/CENTRAL ATLC
THROUGH 32N44W SW TO THE N WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 15N60W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM E
OF THE TROUGH FROM 24N-32N. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E
ATLANTIC N OF 15N AND E OF 40W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... DEEP
LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC TO THE E COAST OF THE US N OF
23N W OF BERMUDA WITH RIDGING TO THE E OF THE TROUGH TO THE
CENTRAL ATLC. NARROW DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC
EXTENDS FROM A MID/UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 30N45W S TO 20N50W
WITH CYCLONIC FLOW N OF 20N FROM 40W-50W. NARROW RIDGE IS N OF
20N FROM 35W-40W WITH AXIS ALONG 38W. A LARGE UPPER LOW IS OVER
THE E ATLC NEAR 29N18W WITH CYCLONIC FLOW N OF 18N E OF 35W.
ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC S OF 20N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS THE W ATL FROM 10N-25N W OF 46W.

$$
WALLACE


WWWW
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net