[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 101737
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU 10 FEB 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 7N10W 1N20W EQ30W 2S50W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 3N-6.5N BETWEEN 13W-17W.  ISOLATED MODERATE
WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 17W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO AND WEST ATLANTIC W OF 60W....
THE UPPER FLOW IS ZONAL FOR NOW BUT IT CHANGING AS A DEEPENING
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY POISED ALONG ABOUT 80W DROPS
SOUTHWARD... BRINGING A STRONG COLD FRONT THRU THE AREA.  FRONT
LIES FROM OFFSHORE OF NE FLORIDA NEAR 31N79W THRU THE STATE NEAR
ORLANDO CONTINUING SW TO 26N88W INTO E MEXICO NEAR 22N98W
BECOMING STATIONARY OVER THE SIERRA MADRES.  WINDS HAVE TURNED
GENERALLY NLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A
NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS MARKS THE FRONT WITH A BROKEN/OVERCAST
CLOUD DECK BEHIND IT FOR ABOUT 120/150 NM.  SKIES ARE FAIR AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WITH A WEAK 1017 MB HIGH OVER THE W ATLC NEAR
27N65W RIDGING WSW INTO CUBA.  THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE
GULF OVERNIGHT AND ZIP THRU THE W ATLC BY LATE SAT.  UPPER
DYNAMICS LOOK QUITE LIMITED WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.  COLD
NIGHTS APPEAR TO BE IN STORE FOR FLORIDA WITH W TO NW FLOW
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS.  RETURN FLOW MOISTURE/ISOLATED
SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN ALONG THE S TEXAS COAST BY SAT WITH A WEAK
FRONT LIKELY TO ENTER THE NW GULF LATE SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER PERSISTS WITH MID/UPPER RIDGING OVER THE
NW CARIBBEAN AND THE NE CARIBBEAN EXPERIENCING DRY NW FLOW FROM
A CENTRAL ATLC TROUGH.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS ONLY ALLOWING
SHALLOW SHOWERS IN THE REGION... ESPECIALLY FOCUSED ALONG A
DECAYING TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS TO NE
VENEZUELA NEAR 10N68W.  SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS PLUS ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THIS BOUNDARY... EXCEPT A BIT
HEAVIER OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF VENEZUELA WHERE FLOODING HAS
BEEN REPORTED IN THE MEDIA.  ELSEWHERE A FEW SHOWERS ARE IN
ISOLATED STRATOCUMULUS CLUSTERS W OF 70W.  A COLD FRONT SHOULD
MAKE IT INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN OVERNIGHT WITH DRIER AIR AND
SHOWERS BEHIND IT... IMPACTING HISPANIOLA ON SAT AND BRINGING
WET WEATHER TO PUERTO RICO PROBABLY ON SUN.  CONDITIONS REMAINS
PLEASANT IN PUERTO RICO WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60W THOUGH
STICKIER AIR IS NOT FAR AWAY WITH LOW/MID 70S REPORTED E OF THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS.

REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE CENTRAL ATLC HAS A MID/UPPER TROUGH FROM 30N45W S TO 21N45W
THEN 15N52W WITH VERY DRY AIR ALOFT BEHIND THE TROUGH.
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N44W 20N49W TO THE NORTHERN
WINDWARD ISLANDS SERVED AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR ISOLATED
TSTMS WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE TROUGH N OF 21N.  FAST ZONAL FLOW
COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC INCREASING S OF A BIG LOW OVER THE
CANARY ISLANDS.  THE MID/UPPER LOW SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME
DEEP-LAYERED WITH STRONG UPPER DYNAMICS.  THE LOW IS STUCK UNDER
A LARGE RIDGE NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS AND SHOULD LINGER IN THE
NE ATLC AT LEAST THRU THE WEEKEND.  WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
N OF 26N E OF 20W UNDER THE UNSTABLE COLD CORE OF THE LOW.  WSW
FLOW BENEATH THE LOW IS ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION SW OF AFRICA.

$$
BLAKE


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