[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 080614
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE 08 FEB 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 5N1W  3N5W 3N17W 2N25W 3N34W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT
45W...1S49W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
SOUTH OF 4N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 31W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...ACROSS MEXICO...
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MOVES ACROSS MEXICO FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...GRADUALLY BECOMING UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE OPEN GULF WATERS...IN AN AREA OF BROAD UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. THIS SAME UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY-
TO-WESTERLY FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY-
TO-NORTHWESTERLY AT THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS IT
CROSSES FLORIDA TOWARD AND OVER THE BAHAMAS. SURFACE TROUGH IN
THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COASTAL WATERS...IN ADVANCE OF A TEXAS
COLD FRONT...SHOWERS ARE IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH.
SURFACE RIDGE FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH 14N60W TO 12N67W NEAR SOME OF THE ISLANDS
OFF THE VENEZUELA COAST. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY
FLOW FROM SOUTH AMERICA BLOWING OVER THIS AREA. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS SOUTHEAST OF 19N60W 15N70W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE VENEZUELA COASTAL WATERS WITHIN 15 TO 30 NM RADIUS OF
11N67.5W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF 17N63W
13N85W. THE MAJORITY OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
CONSISTS OF DRY AIR...WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE REACHING
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA COURTESY OF THE FLOW FROM
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN PASSING OVER MEXICO. MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH A BRANCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
RIDGE...WHICH IN THIS CASE RUNS FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND
PENINSULA TO NICARAGUA. MIDDLE LEVEL FLOW IS FROM THE
NORTHWEST-TO-WEST EAST OF 70W...STILL ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP
LAYER TROUGH ORIGINATING IN THE CENTRAL SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC
OCEAN.

THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYER TROUGH AND CYCLONIC FLOW COVER THE SUBTROPICAL AND
TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA EAST OF 70W...
NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 48W AND 76W. THE
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS NEAR 30.5N
58W. THIS WHOLE LARGE SCALE FEATURE SUPPORTS THE SURFACE 1001 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 30N58W. SURFACE TROUGH FROM 30N48W TO
23N50W TO 20N52W 14N60W AND 12N67W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. BROKEN
TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITHIN 100 TO 150 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 17N60W 21N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN 51W AND 55W. A DENSE SHIELD
OF COLD-TOP HIGH CLOUDS COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF 20N
BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ELSEWHERE NORTH
OF 24N BETWEEN 50W AND 62W. THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH WHICH HAD BEEN
ALONG A LINE FROM PORTUGAL TO COASTAL MOROCCO NOW HAS MOVED MORE
INLAND...GOING FROM NORTHERN AFRICA TO MAURITANIA NEAR 20N10W TO
18N27W...JUST NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. BROAD UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THESE TWO AREAS OF
CYCLONIC FLOW. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW NORTH OF 7N
BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 30N48W 14N60W SURFACE TROUGH. BROAD UPPER
LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A RIDGE OVER THE ITCZ
COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC SOUTH OF 20N.

$$
MT

WWWW
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