[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 041151
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI 04 FEB 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 6N10W 3N20W 2N30W 2N40W 3N46W 2N54W. ISOLATED MODERATE
TO LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 7N12W 4N20W 1N28W 1N33W...AND WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS
OF 8N56W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SOUTH OF 5N BETWEEN 34W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...ACROSS MEXICO...
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR 28N119W. TROUGH FROM THIS CENTER TO 16N123W.
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ARE
BEING SPREAD ACROSS INTERIOR MEXICO TO THE EAST OF THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
OPEN GULF OF MEXICO WATERS...ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE BROAD
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW EAST OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROUGH.
MIDDLE TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE GULF WATERS. SURFACE COLD
FRONT FROM 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 32N76W OFF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST TO CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 24N85W TO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. STATIONARY
FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...CURVING
THROUGH 20N93W INTO MEXICO JUST EAST OF THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC. STATIONARY FRONT BREAKS UP ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC AND RUNS FROM 17N96W TO 20N100W TO 24N105W TO
30N109W. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC FROM 1032 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER NEAR 32N100W IN NORTHWESTERN/NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
AREAS OF SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE LEVEL NORTH-TO-NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WEST OF 70W...AS
SEEN IN CLOUD MOVEMENTS IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND IN
THE 04/0600 UTC CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA. MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER
OF THE AREA...FROM BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
ORIGINATING OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND CONTINUING INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC EAST OF THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
DRY AIR EVERYWHERE. THE CARIBBEAN SEA NORTH OF 15N EAST OF 80W
HAS CLUSTERS OF COLD-AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS POURING OVER THE
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS FROM THE NORTH BEHIND A FRONT WHICH IS
STATIONARY NOW. EXPECT...WAVES OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE LARGE
CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE CENTER EAST OF BERMUDA CONTINUES TO SEND
NORTHERLY WINDS AND LARGE SWELLS. DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT
FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH 16N59W TO 15N68W IN THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. POSSIBLE SHOWERS ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS FRONT.

THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...
991 MB SURFACE GALE CENTER NEAR 31N58W. DISSIPATING OCCLUDED
FRONT CURVES AROUND THIS FEATURE...NORTH OF THE AREA AND
EVENTUALLY TO 31N49W. STATIONARY FRONT 31N49W TO 26N50W 20N54W
16N59W. DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT 16N59W TO 15N68W IN THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE DEEP-LAYERED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS NEAR 31N56W. CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS FEATURE CUTS INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...AND OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS BETWEEN 48W AND
FLORIDA...AS THE GULF OF MEXICO ZONAL FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY
TOWARD THIS DEEP LAYER TROUGH. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF 20N
BETWEEN 40W AND 55W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW NORTH
OF 30N BETWEEN 30W AND 44W. GENTLE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SOUTH OF
24N46W 26N30W BEYOND 24N15W COVERS THE REST OF THE SUBTROPICAL
ATLANTIC AND THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF THE CARIBBEAN
ISLANDS...AND EAST AND NORTHEAST OF SOUTH AMERICA.

$$
MT


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