[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 020536
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED 02 FEB 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N16W 1N35W INLAND OVER SOUTH
AMERICA NEAR 2N51W. LARGE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N TO S OF THE EQUATOR
BETWEEN 18W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIGRATING LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLIDE
SLOWLY E ACROSS THE GULF WITH AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AFFECTING
THE SE UNITED STATES FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO E TEXAS. THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM CONSISTS OF STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE
NE GULF NEAR 28N85W W ALONG 29N91W TO A 1013 MB LOW S OF THE
LOUISIANA/TEXAS BORDER NEAR 27N93W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING S
TO 22N95W WHERE IT AGAIN BECOMES STATIONARY INLAND OVER MEXICO
JUST N OF VERA CRUZ THEN NW ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA
MADRE MOUNTAINS. ALTHOUGH PORTIONS OF THIS FRONT HAVE BECOME
STATIONARY FOR THE MOMENT...IT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO PUSH S
LATER TONIGHT INTO IS MORNING. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN REMAINS
VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND IS CONTRIBUTING
TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT. THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN
UNDER RIDGING FOR MOST OF THE GULF AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
HOWEVER...A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE MID/UPPER TROF OVER TEXAS
WILL BREAK OFF AND MOVE INTO THE TN/MS VALLEY...PUSHING THE
FRONT THRU THE ENTIRE GULF BY FRI MORNING. AREAS OF STEADY
RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE GENERALLY ALONG THE N GULF FROM TEXAS TO
FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS AND THEN WILL BECOME MORE FRONTAL
IN NATURE ON THU AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

CARIBBEAN...
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE UPPER
FLOW OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS PRIMARILY NW/W WITH VIRTUALLY ALL
MOISTURE STREAMING N OF THE AREA ACROSS THE GULF INTO THE W
ATLC. THE LOW LEVELS ARE ALSO RELATIVELY DRY AND THERE ARE ONLY
A FEW PATCHES OF SHOWER ACTIVITY BEING ADVECTED W ALONG THE
TRADES. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING IN A BAND S OF 14N TO THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA BETWEEN 63W-73W. A SECOND PATCH
OF LIGHT SHOWERS EXTEND WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE S COAST OF
HISPANIOLA AND W OF 80W TO INLAND OVER NICARAGUA. OVERCAST LOW
CLOUDS ARE BANKING UP AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS OF COSTA RICA AND W
PANAMA.

ATLANTIC WEST OF 45W...
A 1000 MB DEVELOPING STORM CENTER IS LOCATED ABOUT 275 NM ENE OF
BERMUDA NEAR 33N59W WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT ENTERING THE AREA
ALONG 32N57W TO A TRIPLE POINT NEAR 26N53W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS
SW TO 20N62W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO ALONG THE N COAST OF
HISPANIOLA AND A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE TRIPLE
POINT SE TO 22N47W. THE FRONT IS APPROACHING THE ISLANDS OF
HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO WITH A BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS FIELD
PLUMMETING FROM THE W ATLC WATERS S TO THE E OF THE BAHAMAS AND
BRINGING BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE
ISLANDS FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NE OF THE WARM FRONT WITHIN 90/120 NM OF
LINE FROM 25N45W TO BEYOND 32N52W. A MID/UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGH
COVERS THE ATLC W OF 35W WHICH PRODUCING NW/W FLOW WITH A 110 KT
JET GOING FROM THE CAROLINAS TO 27N58W. HOWEVER...A SHARP
NEGATIVELY TILTED DEEP LAYERED TROUGH REACHES INTO THE AREA
ALONG 32N61W-23N50W AND IS THE CAUSE FOR THE STRENGTHENING OF
THE SURFACE LOW AND PRECIPITATION FIELD FANNING OUT TO THE E.
THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 48
HRS AND DEEPEN WITH BOTH THE WIND FIELD AND PRECIPITATION
EXPANDING.

ATLANTIC EAST OF 45W...
A SECOND NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WITHIN THE
MID/UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGH...IS LOCATED FARTHER E ALONG 32N40W
20N36W AND IS SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 1013 MB LOW NEAR
26N40W WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW TO A 1010 MB LOW NEAR
19N42W WHILE A WARM/STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS TO THE NE TO BEYOND
32N37W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 1010 MB LOW SW TO
15N44W. THE UPPER DIFFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH IS ENHANCING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION E OF THE LOW/FRONT PRIMARILY N OF
22N BETWEEN 33W-40W. THE 1013 MB LOW WILL DEEPEN A BIT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HRS AND WILL MOVE N OUT OF THE AREA ALONG THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LARGER W ATLC LOW. ELSEWHERE...DEEP-LAYERED
RIDGING EXTENDS E OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO 22W WITH A BROKEN
STRATOCUMULUS FIELD MOVING SW OF MADEIRA/CANARY ISLANDS AND
FEEDING INTO THE CNTRL ATLC LOW/FRONT. THE CUT-OFF MID/UPPER LOW
HAS MOVED OVER W AFRICA BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AND IS NOW CENTERED
OVER W ALGERIA NEAR 28N6W BUT IS STILL IS PRODUCING LITTLE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AS DRY AIR COVERS THE AREA W OF 20W. THE
UPPER FLOW OVER THE TROPICS IS COMPLETELY ZONAL WITH 70 TO 80 KT
WINDS EXTENDING E OF 50W BETWEEN 12N-20N AND THERE IS NO UPPER
DIVERGENCE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD ITCZ CONVECTION EXCEPT S OF 5N.
ANOTHER PLUME OF AFRICAN DUST AND DRY AIR HAS ALSO MOVED OFF THE
COAST AND REACHED AS FAR W AS 30W...INHIBITING CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

$$
WALLACE


WWWW
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