[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT43 KNHC 312025
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM LEE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED AUG 31 2005

THERE IS AN UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AT
THIS TIME.  HOWEVER...THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS ESTIMATED TO BE UNDER THE
CONVECTION...BUT THE OUTFLOW IS LIMITED. BASED ON 2.5 DVORAK
T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY AND AMSU ESTIMATES FROM
CIMSS/NESDIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED FROM 30 TO
35 KNOTS. THIS REQUIRES UPGRADING THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO
TROPICAL STORM LEE...THE 12TH TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2005 SEASON.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR ONLY A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING SINCE
THE OCEAN IS RELATIVELY WARM BUT THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS NOT
VERY FAVORABLE.

LEE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 020 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS
AROUND A MID-TO UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST.
THEREFORE...THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN MORE TO THE NORTH AND
NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH THE FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND A DECREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK WHICH KEPT THE CYCLONE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH
NORTHEAST. THIS CHANGE IS BASED ON THE LASTEST RUN OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS AND THE GFDL WHICH TAKE A LOW PRESSURE AREA...OR THE MODEL
REPRESENTATION OF TROPICAL STORM LEE...AROUND THE LARGER UPPER-LOW
AND A BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN NORTH ATLANTIC. ANY
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY SLOW.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      31/2100Z 30.5N  49.7W    35 KT
 12HR VT     01/0600Z 32.3N  49.2W    40 KT
 24HR VT     01/1800Z 34.0N  49.0W    40 KT
 36HR VT     02/0600Z 35.0N  49.5W    40 KT
 48HR VT     02/1800Z 36.0N  50.0W    40 KT
 72HR VT     03/1800Z 37.0N  50.5W    35 KT
 96HR VT     04/1800Z 38.0N  51.0W    30 KT
120HR VT     05/1800Z 39.0N  51.5W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL


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