[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT43 KNHC 311439
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2005

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN WHICH BECAME A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO HAS RE-GENERATED INTO TROPICAL
DEPRESSION STATUS. THIS IS BASED ON DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS OF 2.0
FROM TAFB AND SAB AND A SSM/I MICROWAVE IMAGE AROUND 10Z WHICH
SHOWS A CONVECTIVE RING ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTER. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A WELL-DEFINED CYCLONICALLY CURVED CONVECTIVE
BAND TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER BUT THE OUTFLOW IS RESTRICTED. IT
APPEARS THAT THE DEPRESSION IS VERY NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
AND IF IT NOT ONE NOW...IT COULD BE ONE LATER TODAY. NO SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 040 DEGREES AT 11
KNOTS BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND LOW TO THE
NORTHWEST. STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO BE POORLY DEFINED
DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS AND THE DEPRESSION COULD TURN MORE TO
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND THE CIRCULATION OF THE LOW TO THE
NORTHWEST AND A BUILDING HIGH TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS TRACK IS IN
BETWEEN THE GFDL AND CLIMATOLOGY.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      31/1500Z 28.8N  50.4W    30 KT
 12HR VT     01/0000Z 30.0N  49.0W    35 KT
 24HR VT     01/1200Z 32.0N  48.0W    35 KT
 36HR VT     02/0000Z 34.0N  47.0W    35 KT
 48HR VT     02/1200Z 36.0N  46.0W    35 KT
 72HR VT     03/1200Z 38.0N  45.0W    35 KT
 96HR VT     04/1200Z 40.0N  44.0W    30 KT
120HR VT     05/1200Z 44.0N  39.5W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL


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