[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 311050
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A BROAD 1008 MB TROPICAL ATLC SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
15N39W MOVING WNW 10 KT. THIS LOW CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SIGNS
OF ORGANIZATION...BUT REMAINS A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION SURROUND THE
CENTER WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE 11N38W-17N37W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS N OF THE CENTER FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 35W-41W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH TWO 1012 MB LOWS IS IN THE
CENTRAL ATLC WITH ONE LOW...FORMERLY T.D. THIRTEEN...CENTERED
NEAR 27N52W AND A SECOND TO THE N NEAR 31N52W. BOTH LOWS ARE
MOVING N NEAR 10 KT. AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION E OF THE LOWS...EXTENDS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF
LINE FROM 24N51W TO BEYOND 32N50W.

WEAK CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS CENTERED ALONG 76W S OF 19N
MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN THE BROAD EASTERLY FLOW.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 10N FROM 74W-79W TO INLAND
OVER COLOMBIA AND PANAMA.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N13W 8N22W 15N37W THEN ALONG
13N42W 7N49W 7N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 200 NM N OF THE AXIS FROM 50W-54W. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS FROM
22W-26W AND WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE AXIS FROM 45W-50W. CLUSTERS
OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS FROM
39W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE...IN THE WAKE OF KATRINA...HAS STARTED
DIMINISH AS THE MID/UPPER HIGH OFF THE E COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES DRIFTS SLOWLY NE. MID/UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT NE
EXTENDING MOVING INTO THE NW GULF COVERING THE AREA WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR N OF 27N W OF 92W. SURFACE RIDGING FROM
THE W ATLC HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BUT IS STILL KEEPING THE
LOW LEVELS DRIER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE...STRONG S SURFACE WINDS AND A DEVELOPING MID LEVEL
INVERTED TROUGH CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION OVER S MEXICO AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N FROM
91W-96W. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH OVER THE GULF FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...EXPECT THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER LAND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MAIN UPPER FEATURE IS A MID/UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM N NICARAGUA NE ALONG 16N76W TO THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC NEAR 19N70W. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS ENHANCING THE
CONVECTION OVER COLOMBIA ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE.
STRONG NE TO E WINDS CONTINUE TO FEED UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE INTO
THE NW CARIBBEAN GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 71W-85W INCLUDING HAITI...
JAMAICA...S CUBA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE
LESSER ANTILLES NEAR GUADALOUPE TO NEAR 13N74W IS ADVECTING
TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA E OF 70W. THIS IS GENERATING
ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 13N BETWEEN THE LESSER ANTILLES TO 72W.
EXPECT THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM HISPANIOLA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
TO HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO
THE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE NW OF THE INVERTED TROUGH WHICH
WILL SHIFT W TO OVER THE YUCATAN BY WEEKS END.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER HIGH IS DRIFTING NE ALONG CAROLINA COAST WITH A
NE/SW RIDGE AXIS...FUNNELING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE WAKE OF
KATRINA ACROSS THE W ATLC INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER LOW TO
THE S OF BERMUDA IS CENTERED NEAR 27N65W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING SW TO HISPANIOLA AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W ATLC FROM 24N-30N
BETWEEN 64W-70W. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK 1015 MB HIGH IS E OF
THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N73W. THE CENTRAL ATLC IS UNDER A BROAD UPPER
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 22N56W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS SW
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ACROSS GUADALOUPE AND NE TO BEYOND 32N45W.
COMPLEX AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LOWS/TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS
RIDGE FROM 27N52W TO BEYOND 32N52W WHICH IS ENHANCING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION DESCRIBED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE
SECTION. WEAK RIDGING BETWEEN THIS COMPLEX AREA AND THE  UPPER
LOW S OF BERMUDA IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 57W-62W. SWATH OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY
UPPER AIR IS TO THE E OF THE UPPER RIDGE WITHIN 150-250 NM OF
LINE FROM 27N40W-16N48W TO OVER THE E CARIBBEAN AND SOUTH
AMERICA NEAR 10N61W. THIS IS KEEPING THE W TROPICAL ATLC CLEAR
AND DRY. THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SECOND BROAD UPPER HIGH
CENTERED N OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 18N28W WITH FLOW
COVERING THE AREA S OF 30N E OF 43W. THE 1008 MB LOW IN THE
SPECIAL FEATURES IS ON THE W EDGE OF THIS UPPER RIDGE. AT THE
SURFACE...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE COVERS THE E/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 22N E
OF 45W.

$$
WALLACE





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