[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 310001
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A BROAD 1008 MB ATLC TROPICAL SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
12N37W MOVING WNW 10 KT. THIS LOW HAS NOT BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...BUT MAY BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION ARE MOSTLY N OF THE CENTER FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN
34W-38W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A 1013 MB LOW...FORMERLY T.D. THIRTEEN...IS LOCATED 700 HUNDRED
MILES SE OF BERMUDA NEAR 26N53W MOVING N 10 KT.  SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE CENTER FROM 23N-32N BETWEEN
49W-53W.

WEAK CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS CENTERED ALONG 73W/74W S OF 18N
MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN THE BROAD SYNOPTIC
ELY FLOW...AND SHOWS A FAINT CYCLONIC TURNING.  CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N
COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 69W-74W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 13N33W 7N50W 7N60W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER W AFRICA
FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 8W-12W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 17W-23W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 26W-30W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 42W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
IN THE WAKE OF T.D. KATRINA...LIGHT SW SURFACE WINDS ARE NOTED
OVER THE THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO INLAND CENTRAL FLORIDA...W CUBA...AND
THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST NEAR 32N79W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SW TO N MEXICO
NEAR 24N98W.  FURTHER W...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER TEXAS MOVING E APPROACHING THE W GULF.  THE
ENTIRE GULF PRESENTLY HAS SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE.
EXPECT VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE HIGHEST
POTENTIAL OF CONVECTION IS THE SAME AREAS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
LIGHT SE SURFACE FLOW IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W...WHILE
LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLIES ARE OVER THE CENTRAL AND W
CARIBBEAN.  BESIDES THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 73W/74W...ANOTHER
SURGE OF MOIST LOW CLOUDS IS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS MOVING W
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS E OF 65W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF HISPANIOLA.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER INLAND PANAMA...INLAND HONDURAS W OF
86W...AND GUATEMALA.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...NE FLOW IS OVER THE
W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W...WHILE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN DUE TO A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 22N55W TO 10N70W.
EXPECT THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM HISPANIOLA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
TO HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL OF CONVECTION IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
FROM N COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WEAK 1015 HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 26N66W.  1013 MB LOW
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 26N53W.  1023 MB HIGH IS OVER
THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 32N33W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N79W.  CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 27N65W.  ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 22N55W.  A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 14N41W.  THIS CIRCULATION IS PARTLY
RESPONSIBLE FOR NOT ALLOWING THE 1008 MB TROPICAL LOW NEAR
12N37W FROM BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED.  ANOTHER ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 18N20W.

$$
FORMOSA






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