[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300006
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE KATRINA IS CENTERED NEAR 31.9N 89.6W AT 29/2100 UTC OR
ABOUT 30 MILES NORTHWEST OF LAUREL MISSISSIPPI MOVING N AT 16
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 65 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEE THE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22
KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. KATRINA IS NOW A
CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE.  THE EYE IS NO LONGER SEEN.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXTENDS IN SPIRAL BANDS
FROM 28N-36N BETWEEN 83W-91W.

A STRONG 1008 MB EAST ATLC TROPICAL SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED NEAR
9N32W MOVING W ABOUT 25 KT.  VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
A BROAD ELONGATED CIRCULATION COVERING THE AREA FROM 5N-15N
BETWEEN 28W-38W. THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE LINE 7N34W
11N36W 14N32W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A 1010 MB LOW FORMERLY T.D. THIRTEEN IS W OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
NEAR 18N53W MOVING WNW 15 KT.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 52W-55W.

A WEAK E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS CENTERED ALONG 67W S OF 18N
AND MOVING W ABOUT 15 KT. ONLY A FEW ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 16N17W 10N30W 6N45W 8N60W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED ALONG THE
COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 16W-19W.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
KATRINA EXTEND ABOUT 120 NM FROM THE COAST BETWEEN 85W-90W.
OUTSIDE OF KATRINA MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS COVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF.  THE WESTERN GULF W OF 90W HAS LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SW OR W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS OVER INLAND W CUBA NEAR 23N82W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER N FLORIDA NEAR
30N82W.  A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE CENTER TO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE NEAR 20N97W.  EXPECT LIGHT SW SURFACE WINDS THROUGHOUT
THE GULF WITHIN 24 HOURS...WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER FLORIDA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
DEEP LAYERED ELYS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA.  SOUTHERLY INFLOW SURFACE WINDS COVERS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN W OF 90W DUE TO KATRINA.  NORTHERLY OUTFLOW UPPER
LEVEL WINDS COVERS THE SAME AREA.  PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN
73W-83W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER CENTRAL CUBA FROM 20N-22N
BETWEEN 77W-80W.  PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER VENEZUELA FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN
65W-72W.  EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE SAME GENERAL
AREAS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM
30N57W 22N61W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 27N-32N BETWEEN 59W-61W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS FURTHER E FROM 23N-29N BETWEEN 47W-52W.  A 1024 MB
HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 34N38W.  EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW
IS N OF 20N E OF 50W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND W OF 70W.  A WELL-DEFINED
MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 31N63W.  A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE
CIRCULATION S TO 20N66W.  AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 20N53W AIDING CONVECTION.  FURTHER
DOWNSTREAM A TROUGH AXIS IS LOCATED THROUGH 32N25W TO 10N35W.
AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER W AFRICA NEAR
18N10W.  A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W TO 15N25W.

$$
FORMOSA


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