[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT42 KNHC 292055
TCDAT2
HURRICANE KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2005

KATRINA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND.
UNFORTUNATELY...THERE HAVE BEEN NO OFFICIAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
NEAR THE CENTER OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  BASED ON WSR-88D
DOPPLER VELOCITIES...THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 65
KT...HOWEVER THIS IS ADMITTEDLY A CRUDE ESTIMATE SINCE THE INLAND
RATIO OF SURFACE WINDS TO VELOCITIES ALOFT IS NOT WELL DOCUMENTED.
THE FORECAST INTENSITY HAS A WEAKENING RATE THAT IS MORE OR LESS
CONSISTENT WITH THE DECAY SHIPS GUIDANCE.  KATRINA IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM THIS EVENING AND DROP BELOW STORM
STRENGTH SOMETIME TUESDAY MORNING.  BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM NEARS
THE GREAT LAKES...IT SHOULD BE LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.
KATRINA'S EXTRATROPICAL REMNANT IS LIKELY TO BECOME ABSORBED BY
ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER CANADA LATER IN THE PERIOD.

KATRINA HAS ACCELERATED A LITTLE MORE AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW
360/16.  THE PRIMARY STEERING CURRENT IS BEING PROVIDED THE FLOW
BETWEEN A LARGE EASTWARD-MOVING LOW TO THE NORTH OF THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND A RIDGE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST.
THIS STEERING SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN GRADUALLY TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST...AND ACCELERATE SOME MORE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

EVEN THROUGH THE SYSTEM IS WEAKENING...THE THREAT OF STRONG INLAND
WINDS WILL REMAIN INTO THIS EVENING.  OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS THE
POTENTIAL LOSS OF LIFE DUE TO FALLING TREES.  INLAND FLOODING WILL
ALSO CONTINUE TO BE A HAZARD.

FORECASTER PASCH


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      29/2100Z 31.9N  89.6W    65 KT...INLAND
 12HR VT     30/0600Z 34.2N  89.0W    45 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     30/1800Z 37.2N  87.3W    30 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     31/0600Z 40.5N  83.4W    25 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     31/1800Z 44.0N  78.0W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     01/1800Z 50.0N  70.0W    20 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     02/1800Z 53.0N  67.0W    20 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     03/1800Z...ABSORBED

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