[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 291753
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE KATRINA IS CENTERED NEAR 30.8N 89.6W AT 29/1700 UTC OR
ABOUT 35 NM SSW OF HATTIESBURG MISSISSIPPI AND MOVING N AT 15
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 940 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 90 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEE THE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22
KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. KATRINA IS NOW A
CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL INDICATES
A WELL-DEFINED EYE EVEN THOUGH THE SYSTEM IS ABOUT 60 NM INLAND.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IN SPIRAL BANDS EXTENDS OUTWARD 120
NM FROM THE CENTER OVER THE E SEMICIRCLE AND 60 NM OVER THE W
SEMICIRCLE.

THE FINAL ADVISORY HAS BEEN WRITTEN FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION
THIRTEEN. AT 29/15900 UTC THE DEPRESSION WAS CENTERED NEAR 18.5N
50.5W AND MOVING NW AT 14 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO
35 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. A
SURFACE TROF EXTENDS FROM 25N50W THROUGH THE REMNANTS OF THE
DEPRESSION TO 13N54W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED
WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A 25N50W 17N53W LINE.

A STRONG E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ALONG 30W S OF 18N AND
MOVING W ABOUT 20 KT. A 1008 MB LOW IS LOCATED ALONG THE WAVE
AXIS NEAR 9N50W. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A BROAD
ELONGATED CIRCULATION COVERING THE AREA FROM 6N TO 16N BETWEEN
25W AND 38W. THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 125 NM EITHER SIDE OF A 13N32W
7N33W LINE.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN E CARIBBEAN VERY WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS CENTERED ALONG 64W/65W
S OF 18N AND MOVING W ABOUT 15 KT. ONLY A FEW ISOLATED PASSING
SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N16W 10N29W AND THEN ALONG 10N33W
18N44W 18N50W AND THEN ALONG 17N53W 10N62W. ONLY ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF
THE AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH KATRINA EXTEND ABOUT 120
NM FROM THE COAST BETWEEN 85W AND 93W. OUTSIDE OF KATRINA
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS COVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
GULF. THE EASTERN PART OF A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER TEXAS
COVERS THE WESTERN GULF W OF 93W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
DEEP LAYERED EASTERLY FLOW DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT FOR
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NW PART. A WEAK MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS MOVING WESTWARD OVER HONDURAS AND
NICARAGUA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WELL-DEFINED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
CENTERED OVER 31N65W...MOVING SE ABOUT 10 KT. A TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDS FROM THE CIRCULATION SSW TO 25N68W. A RIDGE AXIS E OF
THE TROUGH IS AIDING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM
28N TO 33N BETWEEN 59W AND 64W. FURTHER DOWNSTREAM A TROUGH AXIS
IS LOCATED THROUGH 32N56W TO 22N59W. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
IS CENTERED NEAR 21N54W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE
CIRCULATION NNE TO 32N48W. A LARGE AREA OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
COVERS THE AREA FROM 15N TO 32N BETWEEN 40W AND 52W. FINALLY A
MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS LOCATED THROUGH 32N25W TO A
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 25N37W.

$$
CAB

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