[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT43 KNHC 290910
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2005

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN HAS BECOME RATHER DIFFICULT TO LOCATE
THIS MORNING.  ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND BUOY 41040
SUGGEST THAT THERE MAY BE MORE THAN ONE CIRCULATION BENEATH THE
DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION.  AT THE MOMENT...THE DOMINANT
CIRCULATION SEEMS TO BE NEAR THE MAJORITY OF THE NORTHERN CONVECTIVE
CLUSTER.  HOWEVER... IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF THE CENTER WERE
TO BE RELOCATED FURTHER SOUTHWEST IN VISIBLE IMAGERY WHERE THE BUOY
INDICATED A SOUTHWEST WIND AT 10 KT.  SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS ARE
25 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES...SUPPORTING A 25 KT INITIAL INTENSITY.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE...INDICATING GRADUAL STRENGTHENING WITHIN A MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.

INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 305/12.  THE DEPRESSION IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE WITHIN THE STEERING FLOW AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN
EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DYNAMICAL MODELS AGREE WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST TO
NORTH BY 72 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO A BREAK IN THE RIDGE.  AN
ALTERNATE SCENARIO IS A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITHIN THE
LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW AS A SHEARED SYSTEM.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS CLOSE TO THE NOGAPS
SOLUTION.

FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      29/0900Z 16.8N  49.4W    25 KT
 12HR VT     29/1800Z 17.8N  51.0W    25 KT
 24HR VT     30/0600Z 19.3N  53.2W    30 KT
 36HR VT     30/1800Z 20.7N  55.3W    30 KT
 48HR VT     31/0600Z 22.0N  57.3W    35 KT
 72HR VT     01/0600Z 23.7N  59.5W    35 KT
 96HR VT     02/0600Z 25.5N  61.5W    35 KT
120HR VT     03/0600Z 27.0N  63.0W    35 KT


$$
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net