[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS84 KJAN 290355 CCA
HLSJAN
MSZ025>033-036>039-042>066-072>074-290300-

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE KATRINA LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1050 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE KATRINA CONTINUES TO APPROACH
THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO PEOPLE IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSISSIPPI.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
INLAND HURRICANE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MARION...LAMAR...
FORREST...LINCOLN...LAWRENCE...JEFFERSON DAVIS...COVINGTON...
JONES...COPIAH...SIMPSON...SMITH...JASPER...CLARKE...RANKIN...
HINDS...MADISON...SCOTT...NEWTON...LAUDERDALE...LEAKE...NESHOBA AND
KEMPER COUNTIES.

INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ADAMS...
FRANKLIN...JEFFERSON...CLAIBORNE AND WARREN COUNTIES.

INLAND HURRICANE WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
ATTALA...WINSTON...NOXUBEE...CHOCTAW...OKTIBBEHA...LOWNDES...
WEBSTER...AND CLAY COUNTIES.

INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
GRENADA...CARROLL...MONTGOMERY...HOLMES AND YAZOO COUNTIES.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
MISSISSIPPI.

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM FOR JEFFERSON DAVIS...
LAWRENCE...LINCOLN...MARION...COVINGTON...FORREST...JONES...AND
LAMAR COUNTIES.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 10 PM CDT...THE EYE OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 27.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.4 WEST OR ABOUT 105 MILES SOUTH
OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH
EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160
MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES KATRINA A RARE AND EXTREMELY
DANGEROUS CATEGORY FIVE STORM ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE ANTICIPATED...BUT KATRINA IS FORECAST
TO MAKE LANDFALL AT THE CATEGORY FOUR OR FIVE LEVEL.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
WHILE THE HURRICANE WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND MONDAY...THE
HURRICANE WILL LIKELY STILL BE A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE UP TO THE
HIGHWAY 98 CORRIDOR. KATRINA WILL STILL BE A HURRICANE WELL INTO
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND A STRONG TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES INTO
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

PRECAUTIONS SHOULD HAVE BEEN COMPLETED BY NOW FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
VERY STRONG...DAMAGING WINDS AND FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF PROLONGED
POWER OUTAGES OF SEVERAL DAYS TO PERHAPS A FEW WEEKS. PEOPLE
RESIDING IN HOMES THAT ARE NOT WELL CONSTRUCTED SHOULD HAVE MOVED TO
A SAFER ALTERNATIVE LOCATION TO RIDE THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM
OUT...PARTICULARLY OVER AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 55 WHERE THE VERY STRONGEST WINDS COULD OCCUR.

THE SERIOUSNESS OF THIS SITUATION CANNOT BE OVEREMPHASIZED!
HURRICANE KATRINA IS THE SAME STRENGTH AS HURRICANE CAMILLE WHEN IT
MADE LANDFALL IN 1969...BUT IS EVEN LARGER IN SIZE...MEANING THE
POTENTIAL DAMAGE MAY COVER A MORE EXTENSIVE AREA. IT IS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT KATRINA WILL CAUSE EXTENSIVE DAMAGE ACROSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSISSIPPI ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

THIS IS A POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING SITUATION...DO NOT TAKE IT
LIGHTLY! PLEASE FOLLOW THE DIRECTIONS OF STATE...COUNTY AND LOCAL
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS WITH REGARD TO EVACUATIONS AND
PREPAREDNESS ACTIVITIES.

...WIND IMPACTS...
BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...HURRICANE FORCE SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 80 TO 100 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...APPEAR LIKELY IN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA. IN ADDITION TO DOWNING THOUSANDS OF TREES
AND CAUSING EXTENSIVE POWER OUTAGES...THESE WINDS COULD ALSO CAUSE
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO BUILDINGS AND DESTROY LESS WELL CONSTRUCTED
STRUCTURES.

IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA...SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OF 75
MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...COULD OCCUR...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE PATH OF THE HURRICANE. IN THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH AREA...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 TO 60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO HURRICANE
FORCE MAY OCCUR. WIND DAMAGE COULD BE EXTENSIVE IN THESE AREAS AS
WELL...WITH WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES AND DAMAGE TO STRUCTURES
POSSIBLE.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE BROOKHAVEN
TO HATTIESBURG REGION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY...REACH
THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS...AND THE HIGHWAY
82 CORRIDOR TOWARD THE LATE EVENING. THE WINDS SHOULD PEAK IN THE
PINE BELT REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
MONDAY...WHERE A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE...WHILE THE WORST CONDITIONS FOR THE INTERSTATE
20 CORRIDOR WILL LIKELY BE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO RECOGNIZE THAT ALTHOUGH THE LANDFALL OF KATRINA
IS LESS THAN 12 HOURS AWAY...SOME CHANGES COULD STILL OCCUR TO THE
FORECAST TRACK. A TRACK FARTHER TO THE WEST WOULD CAUSE THE
STRONGEST WINDS AND HEAVIEST RAIN TO SHIFT FARTHER WEST AND
OVERSPREAD THE AREA TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...WHILE A TRACK
FARTHER EAST WOULD CAUSE THE WORST WEATHER TO BE CONFINED TO EASTERN
MISSISSIPPI.

...INLAND FLOODING IMPACTS...
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH LOCALIZED
GREATER AMOUNTS...COULD OCCUR IN THE AREA ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF
THE TRACK. THIS COULD CAUSE URBAN FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING OF
SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS. RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL
UNLESS HEAVIER RAINFALL THAN FORECAST OCCURS.

...INLAND TORNADO IMPACTS...
THE RISK OF TORNADOES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 59
CORRIDOR AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON AND THE EYE OF HURRICANE KATRINA
MOVES CLOSER TO THE COAST.

THE RISK OF TORNADOES WILL EXPAND TO COVER MUCH OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS KATRINA MOVES
INLAND. AN ENHANCED RISK OF TORNADOES WILL LIKELY EXIST ALONG AND
EAST OF A MONTICELLO TO COLUMBUS LINE.

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE EXPERIMENTAL PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH KATRINA FOR JACKSON IS 85 PERCENT. THE PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS IS 27 PERCENT.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED BY 2 AM CDT.

$$

GERARD/EDMONSTON

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