[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS84 KMOB 290243
HLSMOB
ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-290700-

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
943 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE KATRINA CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE
EXTREME SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COASTS...

...KATRINA REMAINS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE
WITH 160 MPH WINDS AND HIGHER GUSTS...

...RECORD STORM SURGE REMAINS POSSIBLE ALONG THE ALABAMA COAST...
POSSIBLY WORSE THAN HURRICANE FREDERIC OF 1979...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS
IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...ESCAMBIA...COVINGTON...WASHINGTON...CONECUH...
MONROE...BUTLER...CLARKE...CRENSHAW...WILCOX...CHOCTAW...BALDWIN AND
MOBILE COUNTIES.

IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...GEORGE...STONE...PERRY...GREENE AND WAYNE
COUNTIES.

IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA...OKALOOSA...ESCAMBIA AND SANTA ROSA COUNTIES.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL MOBILE AND BALDWIN
COUNTIES.

AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR INLAND MOBILE...
BALDWIN...CHOCTAW AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...AND
STONE...GEORGE...PERRY...GREENE AND WAYNE COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR
COASTAL ESCAMBIA...SANTA ROSA AND OKALOOSA COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST
FLORIDA.

AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR INLAND ESCAMBIA...
SANTA ROSA AND OKALOOSA COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ESCAMBIA...
COVINGTON...CONECUH...MONROE...BUTLER...CLARKE...CRENSHAW AND WILCOX
COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. PLEASE SEE THE
BHMNPWMOB PRODUCT FOR DETAILS RELATED TO THE INLAND AREAS.

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA THROUGH 2 AM MONDAY
MORNING. THIS WATCH WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED THROUGH MONDAY AS THE
TORNADO THREAT INCREASES WITH THE APPROACHING HURRICANE.


...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 9 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 27.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.1 WEST OR ABOUT 195 MILES
SOUTH...SOUTHWEST OF DAUPHIN ISLAND.

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...AND A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD DUE NORTH IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 904 MB...26.70 INCHES.
KATRINA IS A CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-
SIMPSON SCALE...AND CONTINUES TO EQUAL OR EXCEED THE STRENGTH OF
HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY
BEFORE LANDFALL. HOWEVER...HURRICANE KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE
LANDFALL AS A CATEGORY FOUR OR FIVE HURRICANE EARLY MONDAY OVER
EXTREME SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
RESIDENTS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI NEED TO COMPLETE PREPARATIONS THIS EVENING. HURRICANE
AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL OCCUR WELL EAST OF THE STORM
CENTER...ALONG WITH HIGH...POSSIBLY RECORD SETTING...STORM TIDES
ALONG THE ALABAMA COAST...WITH LESSER BUT STILL DANGEROUS SURGE
LEVELS ALONG THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA COASTLINE. STAY TUNED TO LOCAL
RADIO AND TELEVISION FOR DETAILS FOR THE LATEST EVACUATION
INFORMATION.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL SOMEWHERE NEAR EXTREME SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AS A MAJOR HURRICANE...LIKELY AS AT LEAST A CATEGORY FOUR
AND POSSIBLY A CATEGORY FIVE. A SIGNIFICANT AND LIFE THREATENING
STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO BE FELT WELL EAST OF THE STORM CENTER
ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA COASTLINES.

BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK AND SPEED...A STRONG CATEGORY
FOUR OR MINIMUM CATEGORY FIVE LAND-FALLING HURRICANE WOULD BRING TIDE
LEVELS AS HIGH AS 10 TO 15 FEET ALONG COASTAL MOBILE COUNTY AND THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF MOBILE BAY...WITH HIGHER LEVELS POSSIBLE OVER THE
EXTREME NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAY. TIDE LEVELS OF THIS MAGNITUDE
WOULD SEVERALLY AFFECT DOWNTOWN MOBILE WITH WATER SPILLING INTO THE
DOWNTOWN AREA AND EXTENDING AS FAR WEST AS BROAD STREET. THIS WOULD
BE THE HIGHEST SURGE LEVEL EVER EXPERIENCED IN MOBILE. FOR
COMPARISON...THE HIGHEST SURGE LEVELS PREVIOUSLY EXPERIENCED IN THE
DOWNTOWN AREA WERE NEAR 9 FEET WITH HURRICANES FREDERIC AND GEORGES.
IN ADDITION...DAUPHIN ISLAND WOULD LIKELY BE INUNDATED...EXCEPT FOR
HIGHER GROUND ON THE EAST END.

A STORM TIDE OF 10 TO 12 FEET IS EXPECTED ALONG COASTAL BALDWIN
COUNTY...COMPARABLE TO HURRICANE IVAN OF LAST YEAR. SIGNIFICANT
INUNDATION IS LIKELY ALONG THE BEACHES OF GULF SHORES AND ORANGE
BEACH. PARTS OF THE FORT MORGAN PENINSULA WILL LIKELY BE INUNDATED AS
WELL.

TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA COAST WILL RANGE FROM NEAR
8 FEET IN THE PENSACOLA AREA TO AROUND 5 FEET IN THE DESTIN AREA.

...WIND IMPACTS...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...40 MPH OR GREATER...ARE LIKELY TO
OVERSPREAD THE MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA COASTAL AREAS AROUND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...THEN SPREADING OVER THE REMAINING INLAND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA SOMETIME EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...75 MPH OR GREATER...ARE LIKELY ALONG
THE MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA COASTS BY MID MONDAY MORNING...THEN
SPREADING FURTHER INLAND ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH OVER EXTREME SOUTHWEST
ALABAMA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THE MONDAY MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS.

...RIP CURRENTS...
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING SINCE LAST
EVENING. SWIMMERS SHOULD NOT ENTER THE WATER UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES.

...RAINFALL...
SQUALLS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE KATRINA WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
OVERNIGHT...AND LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH
WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES EXPECTED...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS NEAR 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THE HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
LIKELY BE FELT OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND EXTREME
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...OR THOSE AREAS CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE STORM
AS IT PUSHES INLAND. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA.

...NEW INFORMATION...
KATRINA IS THE STRONGEST HURRICANE EVER EXPERIENCED IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO...AND THE FOURTH STRONGEST HURRICANE EVER RECORDED
IN THE ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF MEXICO BASINS.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED FROM THIS OFFICE
BY 130 AM CDT MONDAY MORNING.

$$

DARBE

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