[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS84 KJAN 282141
HLSJAN
MSZ025>033-036>039-042>066-072>074-282200-

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE KATRINA LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
430 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE KATRINA HEADED FOR THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO PEOPLE IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSISSIPPI.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
INLAND HURRICANE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
MARION...LAMAR...FORREST...LINCOLN...LAWRENCE...JEFFERSON
DAVIS...COVINGTON...JONES...COPIAH...SIMPSON...SMITH...JASPER...
CLARKE...RANKIN...HINDS...MADISON...SCOTT...NEWTON...LAUDERDALE...
LEAKE...NESHOBA AND KEMPER COUNTIES.
INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ADAMS...
FRANKLIN...JEFFERSON...CLAIBORNE AND WARREN COUNTIES.

INLAND HURRICANE WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
ATTALA...WINSTON...NOXUBEE...CHOCTAW...OKTIBBEHA...LOWNDES...
WEBSTER...AND CLAY COUNTIES.
INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
GRENADA...CARROLL...MONTGOMERY...HOLMES AND YAZOO COUNTIES.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 4 PM CDT...THE EYE OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.0 WEST OR ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. KATRINA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH
NORTHWEST EXPECTED TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 165
MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES KATRINA A RARE AND EXTREMELY
DANGEROUS CATEGORY FIVE STORM ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
KATRINA IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AS A
POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE MONDAY MORNING.
WHILE THE HURRICANE WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND...ASSUMING THE
HURRICANE MAKES LANDFALL AT CATEGORY FIVE STRENGTH KATRINA WILL
LIKELY STILL BE A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE UP TO THE HIGHWAY 98
CORRIDOR. KATRINA WILL STILL BE A HURRICANE WELL INTO CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...AND A STRONG TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES INTO NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI.

PEOPLE NEED TO COMPLETE PRECAUTIONS NOW FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY
STRONG...DAMAGING WINDS. LOOSE OBJECTS OUTDOORS SHOULD BE MOVED
INSIDE. PREPARE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF PROLONGED POWER OUTAGES OF
SEVERAL DAYS TO PERHAPS A FEW WEEKS. PEOPLE RESIDING IN HOMES THAT
ARE NOT WELL CONSTRUCTED WILL WANT TO MOVE TO SAFER ALTERNATIVE
LOCATIONS TO RIDE THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM OUT...PARTICULARLY OVER
AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 55 WHERE THE VERY
STRONGEST WINDS COULD OCCUR.

THE SERIOUSNESS OF THIS SITUATION CANNOT BE OVEREMPHASIZED!
HURRICANE KATRINA NOW IS THE SAME STRENGTH AS HURRICANE CAMILLE
WHEN IT MADE LANDFALL IN 1969...BUT IS EVEN LARGER IN SIZE...MEANING
THE POTENTIAL DAMAGE MAY COVER A MORE EXTENSIVE AREA. PREPAREDNESS
ACTIVITIES SHOULD BE COMPLETED TODAY.

...INLAND WIND IMPACTS...
BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...HURRICANE FORCE SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 80 TO 100 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...APPEAR LIKELY IN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA. IN ADDITION TO DOWNING THOUSANDS OF TREES
AND CAUSING EXTENSIVE POWER OUTAGES...THESE WINDS COULD ALSO CAUSE
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO BUILDINGS AND DESTROY LESS WELL CONSTRUCTED
STRUCTURES.

IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA...SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OF 75
MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...COULD OCCUR...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE PATH OF THE HURRICANE. IN THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH AREA...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 TO 60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO HURRICANE
FORCE MAY OCCUR. WIND DAMAGE COULD BE EXTENSIVE IN THESE AREAS AS
WELL...WITH WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES AND DAMAGE TO STRUCTURES
POSSIBLE.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE BROOKHAVEN
TO HATTIESBURG REGION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY...REACH
THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS...AND THE HIGHWAY
82 CORRIDOR TOWARD THE LATE EVENING. THE WINDS SHOULD PEAK IN THE
PINE BELT REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
MONDAY...WHERE A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE...WHILE THE WORST CONDITIONS FOR THE INTERSTATE
20 CORRIDOR WILL LIKELY BE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO RECOGNIZE THAT THE LANDFALL OF KATRINA IS STILL
ABOUT 18 HOURS AWAY...SO SOME CHANGES COULD STILL OCCUR TO THE
FORECAST TRACK. A TRACK FARTHER TO THE WEST WOULD CAUSE THE
STRONGEST WINDS AND HEAVIEST RAIN TO SHIFT FARTHER WEST AND
OVERSPREAD THE AREA TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...WHILE A TRACK
FARTHER EAST WOULD CAUSE THE WORST WEATHER TO BE CONFINED TO EASTERN
MISSISSIPPI.

...INLAND FLOODING IMPACTS...
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH LOCALIZED
GREATER AMOUNTS...COULD OCCUR IN THE AREA ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF
THE TRACK. THIS COULD CAUSE URBAN FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING OF
SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS. RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL
UNLESS HEAVIER RAINFALL THAN FORECAST OCCURS.

...INLAND TORNADO IMPACTS...
THERE WILL BE A RISK OF TORNADOES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ALONG AND
TO THE EAST OF THE TRACK OF THE HURRICANE. BASED ON THE CURRENT
TRACK...THIS RISK WOULD MAINLY BE EAST OF INTERSTATE 55.

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE EXPERIMENTAL PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH KATRINA FOR JACKSON IS 86 PERCENT. THE PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS IS 42 PERCENT.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED BY 8 PM CDT.

$$

GERARD/EDMONSTON






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