[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT72 KNHC 282043
SPFAT2
HURRICANE KATRINA PROBABILITIES NUMBER  24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE  89.0 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  1PM CDT WED AUG 31 2005

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

30.6N  89.9W      40  1  X  X 41   PANAMA CITY FL     X  2  2  1  5
33.4N  89.2W       5 27  X  X 32   PENSACOLA FL       9  8  1  X 18
36.0N  87.5W       X  6 17  1 24   MOBILE AL         25  5  X  X 30
SAVANNAH GA        X  X  X  2  2   GULFPORT MS       36  2  X  X 38
CHARLESTON SC      X  X  X  2  2   BURAS LA          52  X  X  X 52
MYRTLE BEACH SC    X  X  X  2  2   NEW ORLEANS LA    46  X  X  1 47
WILMINGTON NC      X  X  X  2  2   NEW IBERIA LA     31  1  X  X 32
NORFOLK VA         X  X  X  3  3   PORT ARTHUR TX     3  2  X  X  5
OCEAN CITY MD      X  X  X  3  3   GULF 29N 87W       7  4  X  X 11
ATLANTIC CITY NJ   X  X  X  3  3   GULF 28N 89W      72  X  X  X 72
NEW YORK CITY NY   X  X  X  2  2   GULF 28N 91W      51  X  X  X 51
ST MARKS FL        X  X  1  1  2   GULF 28N 93W       8  1  X  X  9
APALACHICOLA FL    X  1  X  1  2

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  1PM MON
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  1PM MON TO  1AM TUE
C FROM  1AM TUE TO  1PM TUE
D FROM  1PM TUE TO  1PM WED
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  1PM WED
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER PASCH


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